The effect is essentially statistical, but it nonetheless remains a warning: in France, as in the entire euro zone, inflation increased in December, according to data published Friday January 5 by Eurostat, l European Statistical Institute. Over twelve rolling months, it rose from 3.9% in November to 4.1% in December in France (according to the harmonized European index, slightly different from that of INSEE), from 2.4% to 2.9% in the euro zone and, above all, from 2.3% to 3.8% in Germany…
Expected, this resurgence of inflation is mainly mechanical. It is linked to the gradual elimination of emergency government aid which had been put in place in 2022. This is particularly the case in Germany where subsidies for energy bills have just been withdrawn. This increases the price paid by households and businesses and hence the inflation calculation.
In France, the end of the tariff shield acts in exactly the same way. In fact, the slight recovery in inflation in December, which rose to 3.7% over one year, according to the index calculated by INSEE, after 3.5% in November, is largely explained by the “energy” item. », whose prices increased by 5.6%.
Service prices also contribute to this modest acceleration: they increased by 3.1% in December. But food, which played the role of locomotive in 2023, with a rate of increase which rose to 16% in the spring, has calmed down. Agricultural producer prices fell by 10% over one year, and INSEE estimates that food inflation will only be 1.9% in June 2024. The rise in prices on this same date , should be 2.6%, according to INSEE. In these conditions, the small recovery in inflation that occurred in December is not worrying, at least for the moment. “It will be temporary”predicts the Oxford Economics firm.
To overcome this kind of statistical volatility, economists prefer to use the so-called “underlying” inflation rate, excluding the costs of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, which are too variable. By this measure, the process of disinflation continues. Thus, the twelve-month price increase in the euro zone rose from 3.6% in November to 3.4% in December.
“The last mile is often the hardest”
This “underlying” indicator is a good reminder that the price landing is not over, far from it. Excluding the last two years, it remains at its highest level since the creation of the single currency in 1999, and is far from the official objective of the European Central Bank (ECB), which targets inflation at 2% on the medium term.
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