“ Peak oil and gas probably won’t be reached for some time, let alone 2030 », said Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, in a speech at the CERAWeek conference in Houston (Texas), Monday March 18. He also questioned the ability of alternative energies to replace hydrocarbons on a large scale.
A speech fully aligned with the forward-looking vision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Saudi Arabia is the leader. The opposite of the scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) which anticipates a rapid drop in oil demand to ensure the reduction of CO emissions2.
Amin Nasser’s position is the last episode of the duel in which the two institutions have been engaged since 2021 through interposed scenarios. The IEA, created in 1974 by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in response to the first oil shock, represents the major energy consuming countries – United States, Europe, Japan, etc. OPEC brings together 12 producing countries including Venezuela, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It also has around ten allied countries led by Russia, within the framework of an informal union, OPEC+.
At the origin of the tensions, the publication by the IEA in May 2021 of the report of more than 200 pages “ Net Zero by 2050 “. This roadmap for the decarbonization of the energy sector includes several shocking recommendations: stopping new investments in fossil fuels, dividing oil demand by four, etc. It materializes the new role that the agency intends to play in the support for the energy transition.
“Peak oil”
“ A declaration of war from the OPEC perspective »judge Francis Perrin, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, both “ oil is essential for the economy of the organization’s member countries ».
“ I believe this is a sequel to the film La La Land…Why should I take this seriously ? », reacts the Saudi Minister of Energy, Prince Abdel Aziz Ben Salman, questioned in June 2021 about the IEA recommendations. Then, in April 2022, OPEC announced that it would no longer use the agency’s oil data, considered too ideological.
The feud rebounds in September 2023. In a column published by the Financial TimesFatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, announces “ the end of oil growth by 2030 ». For the first time, in its annual prospective report “ World Energy Outlook » published in October 2023, the IEA sees oil demand, which stood at 102 million barrels per day in 2023, peaking before 2030 in its three scenarios. And here, dropped by the IEA, is the word that angers OPEC: the “peak oil”.
You have 43.4% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.