Has the stock market storm that swept away the Cac 40 in the bear market on September 23 passed? To observe the rebound, at the end of the week, one would think, the Parisian index returning to 5,900 on Friday evening – and even 6,000 in session -, with a weekly gain of 1.1%, after a rise of 1.8 % last week.
A little caution is called for, however. On the one hand, the rise in the Cac 40 must be put into perspective: the index has not returned to its levels of mid-August, around 6,600 points. On the other hand, the corporate earnings season as of September 30 has only just begun in the United States and France, where the luxury giant LVMH has done better than expected. Finally, the crucial question of the peak of inflation in the United States has not been settled. Key data of the week, the consumer price index, published on Thursday, came out up 8.2% year on year in September, slightly beyond expectations (8.1%), and 6 .6% excluding food and energy, against 6.5% expected.
In an instinctive reflex, the Cac 40, which saw it as a sign of continued monetary tightening, plunged to 5,700 points, close to its 2022 lows, before starting a formidable recovery, helped by Wall Street. , where the S&P 500 experienced a dramatic trend reversal. A rebound partly technical, partly linked to speculation, with some betting that it is a last burst of inflation before the lull.
On Friday, the return to risky assets, the People’s Bank of China’s commitment to support its economy and Vladimir Putin’s remarks on the non-extension of military mobilization contributed to the favorable evolution of the trend. This, however, slowed in the afternoon after the Michigan survey showed an increase in inflation expectations. This theme will remain at the heart of the debates and, if the sun seems to be back, the rain, usual in October, could quickly return.