Ukraine cites high casualty figures
Russia is paving the road to Avdiivka with its own corpses
By Frauke Niemeyer
December 17, 2023, 12:45 p.m
Russian troops continue to advance, but the price they are paying is high. Russia is losing an enormous number of soldiers and equipment – on Saturday, according to Ukrainian reports, 1,250 people were wounded or killed. One target of the costly attacks: opinion in the West.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports continued fierce fighting on the ground. Foreign experts such as the Institute for War Studies (ISW) in the USA observe that Russia is gaining ground with its advances. However, according to Ukrainian attacks, the price is currently very high: the General Staff reported on Sunday that 1,250 Russian soldiers had died in the last 24 hours. This is far more than the usual daily loss figure, which is usually well below 1,000.
Ukraine also estimated that the losses of Russian equipment were above average for yesterday: the general staff of the Ukrainian army reported the destruction of 19 tanks, 25 armored transport vehicles and 37 artillery systems.
The high numbers match front-line reports reporting dozens of Russian attacks in the east and south of the country. Most of the Russian advances were again in the city of Avdiivka and the surrounding area in Donbass – 27 battles were registered. They were repelled, it is said. In the General Staff’s evening report on Saturday there was talk of a total of 71 battles – a slight decrease after 82 battles on Friday.
Security experts have been analyzing for a long time that the Russian troops are suffering enormous losses of soldiers’ lives in their absolute desire to take Avdiivka. Undeterred, the Russian military leadership sends its tanks to the Ukrainian city, which is now in ruins. The numbers have increased again since October, but many tanks are destroyed by Ukrainian artillery – according to Ukrainian reports, there are now 220 in Avdiivka alone. Accordingly, British and American secret services attest to the Russian army’s small territorial gains at an enormously high cost in terms of people and material.
However, from the beginning of the war, Russia showed no regard for human life. Of the approximately 360,000 soldiers that Moscow’s army had under contract before the war and who went to war against Ukraine in February 2022, 315,000 are said to have been injured or killed. This is how it is calculated by a US intelligence analysis that was published a few days ago. The losses are therefore 87 percent of the original army – hardly any of the fighters from the first days are still uninjured or at least alive.
The pressure that is currently forcing commanders into losing battles comes directly from Moscow. The news that Avdiivka, a Ukrainian city, has been captured would be very convenient for President Vladimir Putin in order to be able to present the Russian population with a measurable military success in Ukraine before the “elections” next spring.
Russia wants to sow doubt in the West
In addition, the Kremlin calculates that the West may lose interest in supporting Ukrainian troops if they no longer have success on the battlefield. After the failed summer offensive, pessimism is spreading in the supporting states. Doubts are being raised as to whether Ukraine is even militarily capable of defeating Russia. In order to drive public opinion in the West in this direction, no price is apparently too high for Putin. According to an analysis by German security expert Nico Lange, the real situation for Kiev’s troops is better than often portrayed.
“Many forget that a large proportion of the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles delivered are still available and a lot of the promised weapons are still to be delivered,” said political advisor Lange to the newspaper “Die Welt”. These include 200 German Leopard-1 tanks. Only 30 of these 200 have arrived in Ukraine so far.
Western anti-aircraft equipment is currently proving itself in the Ukrainian defense battle. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj counts the launch of ballistic missiles from Russia – i.e. those that do not have their own propulsion – among the successes of anti-aircraft defense. “The Patriots, Nasams, Cheetahs and other systems provided by our partners work perfectly,” Zelensky said in his video message on Saturday. At the same time, it is important to further improve the air defense over Ukraine; this is a topic in almost every one of his contacts with foreign partners.
In recent nights, Russia has also attacked with swarms of combat drones. As was the case last winter, the target is often energy supply systems. However, Ukrainian air defense is also significantly better equipped to combat drones this winter. In one week, according to the president’s account, 104 of 112 attacking Shahed drones were intercepted. Nevertheless, according to civilian authorities, there were dozens of injuries and damage – including in Kiev.