As Moscow continues to exert pressure on its neighbour, Ukraine announces that it is preparing for “all scenarios”. Emmanuel Macron will travel to Russia on Monday and then to Ukraine on Tuesday.
The Ukrainian presidency judged on Sunday that the chances of finding a “diplomatic solutionto the crisis with Russia wereconsiderably superior» to that of a «climbing» military. “The chances of finding a diplomatic solution for a de-escalation are considerably greater than the threat of further escalationsaid Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, after warnings from US intelligence that Moscow has stepped up its preparations for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron will travel to Russia on Monday and then to Ukraine on Tuesday.
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“A significant concentration of Russian troops near our borders (…) has been maintained since last spring“, but for “perform massive psychological pressure“, Russia proceeds to “massive rotations“, to maneuvers and movements of armaments, continued the official in written comments given to AFP by the press service of the presidency.
However, Ukraine and its Western allies must “be prepared for all scenarios and we execute this task 100%“, further argued Mr. Podoliak. American intelligence estimates that Russia already has 70% of the resources needed for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and could have sufficient capacity, ie 150,000 men, to launch an offensive in two weeks.
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According to American officials, American intelligence had not yet established whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had made the decision to go on the offensive or not, but that he wanted to give himself all possible options, from the partial invasion from the separatist enclave of Donbass to total invasion. If Mr. Putin chose the more radical option, he could surround Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky in 48 hours, according to these officials.
They warned that the conflict would have a considerable human cost with the risk of causing the death of 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also cause an influx of 1 to 5 million refugees, mainly to Poland.