The death of probably several hundred mobilized in Makiivka is a disaster for Moscow. It bears witness to ongoing structural problems in the army and erodes the authority of its leadership.
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2023 could not have started worse for Russia’s army. A minute after the New Year, 4 Himars rockets hit a barracks occupied by around 600 recruits. This led to the explosion of 5 tons of diesel and ammunition stored in the same complex. Moscow speaks of 63 dead. The number is by far the highest of a single attackthat has ever been officially granted in this war. In truth, it is more likely to be several hundred.
For the armed forces waging a war of aggression in Ukraine, the attack in Makiivka is a disaster. But the nationalists are not raging over the deaths – they are being traded by the tens of thousands for imperial expansion. Rather, the circumstances show how little the army leadership has learned from the mistakes of the last ten months, from incompetence, irresponsibility or a mixture of both.
Safety only secondary
The details that became public within hours are hair-raising. Makiivka is within range of Ukrainian artillery and in an area where Kyiv has a good network of informants. Nonetheless, the Samara mobilizers were cramped in close quarters next to high-explosive material, and this appears to have been the case for more than a month. They also freely used their mobile phones, which probably enabled the Ukrainians to locate them.
This points to deeper structural problems, especially since Kyiv has been reporting devastating attacks against troop concentrations since Monday: According to Western analysts, the Russian army is trying to better disperse and protect its ammunition depots and units near the front as a result of earlier losses by modern Western artillery. This does not happen systematically, however.
According to Russian military correspondents, the fact that living in cellars and bunkers entails a considerable loss of comfort also plays a role. It seems plausible that the recently mobilized people in the hinterland were not immediately expected to do this, in order not to further undermine their weak morale. However, the lack of decent and safe housing also shows how little priority the armed forces give to the needs of their soldiers.
The strong hierarchies and the war-related loss of thousands of capable cadres in the middle ranks of the army are also the reason for leadership weaknesses that Russian military bloggers have been lamenting for months. Equipment, accommodation and sound tactics depend on the quality of each commander and their ability to mobilize resources from outside the army.
Many officers prefer to shift responsibility. This can now also be seen in the reaction to Makiivka: the military leadership of the so-called People’s Republic of Donetsk is presented as a scapegoat – despite the fact that it is completely dependent on Moscow.
Moscow routine
Neither the Kremlin nor the general staff see their own mistakes. And when army spokesman Igor Konashenkov is forced to concede his own casualties, he rattles off information in a robotic manner like exaggerated reports of success. That doesn’t make them credible. After the sinking of the warship “Moskva”, Russia officially insisted on 22 dead. The many others remain “missing”, which not only dampens popular anger, but also makes it possible to pay less to the bereaved.
It remains to be seen whether this routine will still work after Makiivka. Apparently, many of those killed came from the city of Togliatti, which makes concealment difficult. More serious, however, is the fact that criticism of the leadership has been smoldering for a long time and that powerful warlords like Yevgeny Prigozhin are showing less and less restraint. A few days ago, he said he had nothing to add when members of his paramilitary combat group Wagner insulted their own chief of staff in the most vulgar way. And shortly after the attack in Makiivka, a video surfaced on a Prigozhin channel showing Defense Minister Shoigu dancing and singing in a luxury Moscow restaurant. The distance between army leadership and soldiers cannot be illustrated more symbolically.
These maneuvers may reflect positional struggles between different power groups for Putin’s favour, especially since he is always exempt from criticism. But the military failures and obvious mistakes are eroding the Kremlin’s authority. In principle, Russians may love their country’s superpower status. But who really wants to sacrifice their life for this, especially in an army whose leadership is overwhelmed by the war?
The paranoia and rushed which Putin was last seen during his New Year’s speech, but is unlikely to lead to any relaxation: In order to shift responsibility, he claims more than ever that Russia is in a struggle for survival against the entire West. The Kremlin ruler is thus preparing the ground for even more radical forces.