Now is not the time for de-escalation. This Thursday, Russia initiated joint military maneuvers with Belarus on the Ukrainian border. The day before, the Russian army had broadcast a video showing a battery of missiles pointed in the direction of the neighboring country. For this show of force, around 30,000 Russian and Belarusian soldiers have been dispatched, in addition to the 100,000 Russians already amassed on the border between Russia and Ukraine since November. In a new standoff, Moscow is firmly demanding guarantees that NATO will cease once and for all its extension towards the East, which the Alliance refuses to grant.
These maneuvers immediately led to an avalanche of condemnations from Westerners, who have been trying, together and separately, for several weeks, to defuse the crisis, in particular by waving the threat of economic sanctions. It’s a “dangerous moment for security in Europe” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. In the process, the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, announced the arrival of 350 additional NATO soldiers in Poland. For his part, the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, assured that the Russian military maneuvers were of “great violence”, while Emmanuel Macron, who had gone to Moscow at the start of the week, then to Kiev, had assured that Putin had promised him that there would be no“climbing” additional. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, its troops deployed in Belarus, at five military fields, four airbases and “different sites”, will depart as planned once the maneuvers are completed on February 20.
Ukraine has denounced yet another destabilization attempt on the part of its neighbour, and a desire to “psychological pressure”. At the same time, the Ukrainian army has launched its own maneuvers throughout its territory since the beginning of the week, including the use of Turkish combat drones and anti-tank missiles delivered by London and Washington.
Moscow for its part denies any belligerent will. The country is accused of having massed tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border for an invasion, which the United States has deemed imminent. “Ideologized approaches, ultimatums and threats lead nowhere”, retorted the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, at the start of his meeting with the Briton Liz Truss, who urged the Kremlin to follow a “diplomatic path” to avoid a “bloodshed”.
The Kremlin is seen as the instigator of this conflict in eastern Ukraine, which erupted in 2014 shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and on the heels of a pro-Western revolution in Kiev. Since then, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has claimed more than 14,000 lives, despite peace agreements in 2015. “There is nothing new there. Regarding the risks, they exist and have never ceased since 2014”, repeated this Thursday the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky.