Under Putin’s reign, the Russian economy between resistance and decline

To analyse. McDonald’s is back in Moscow, under a different name and under new ownership, Russian businessman Alexander Govor. Renamed Vkousno i tochka (“delicious, period”) and equipped with a new logo, the fast-food chain will gradually reopen the 850 franchised restaurants of the former American brand. We can see in this recovery Russia’s ability to rebound since the departure of Western companies after the invasion of Ukraine. Or, more likely, the country’s growing isolation, further exemplified by the absence of major corporations and Western leaders from the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, which ended on June 18.

Launched in February 1990, the first McDo had symbolized the opening to capitalism of a moribund USSR. A flashback ? Russia is not in the state it was in at the end of the Soviet era, nor after ten years of Boris Yeltsin’s chaotic presidency. Vladimir Putin brought it into the world economy, without reaching the degree of integration of China. Its industry has diversified somewhat into agri-food and technology. Since the Western sanctions decreed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, it has developed its cereal production to become the world’s leading exporter of wheat – a source of income as much as political leverage, like oil, gas and oil. armament.

No “closed economy”

Nostalgic for the politico-military power of the Soviet Union, the Russian president has no regrets for his planned economy. “We are not going to have a closed economy”he assured, on June 9, in front of young entrepreneurs gathered on the sidelines of the commemoration of the 350e birthday of the “European” tsar, Peter the Great. And he can be pleased that the economy is still holding up, four months after the start of an unprecedented series of sanctions for a major economy.

The ruble is holding up well thanks to the strict interest rate policy of the Governor of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabioullina, and to rigorous management of public accounts, which makes it possible to build up foreign currency reserves. The trade balance is in surplus and the surge in the barrel of black gold, even sold at a discount of 20 to 30 dollars (out of 120 dollars, or approximately 114 euros), ensures significant tax revenue. Gazprom, and therefore the state shareholder, has never made so many profits from gas.

The power praises the resilience of the Russians, who supported the tsarist autocracy and communist totalitarianism, until the crisis of 1998

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