Uneasiness is growing in Kiev
Germany must not abandon Ukraine
A commentary by Denis Trubetskoy, Kiev
1/24/2022 4:33 p.m
After scandalous statements by Vice Admiral Schönbach, who has resigned, Germany has come under massive criticism in the Ukraine. This is often justified, because Kiev deserves more support on the fringes of the Russian troop deployment on the border.
In February 2015, the federal government made a massive contribution to reducing the war in eastern Ukraine, which had cost the lives of more than 13,000 people, to the frontline. From the Ukrainian point of view, the Minsk peace agreement, which was co-initiated by the then Chancellor Angela Merkel, may not be advantageous in all respects. However, the diplomatic efforts brought the federal government a lot of recognition as the most important mediator – also in Kiev.
In contrast, German-Ukrainian relations are currently at a historic low. In view of the Russian troop deployment on the Ukrainian border, the new Chancellor Olaf Scholz not only insists on the thesis that the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline is an economic project. The criticism of the Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder on the sanctions policy against Russia and the blockade of an Estonian arms delivery to Kiev caused a lack of understanding in Ukraine. In addition, at the weekend came the scandalous statements by Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, who has since resigned, that Putin deserves “respect” and that the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia, is lost to Ukraine.
Criticism of the German government’s course is not only voiced by diplomats such as the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin, Andriy Melnyk, but also by Ukrainian society. “Germany is perceived in Ukraine as a state that bans the sale of its arms, blocks deliveries of arms from other partners and Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership, and finished building Nord Stream 2 to give Russia the virtual possibility of a attack on Ukraine,” reads an editorial published Monday in the leading online magazine Ukrayinska Pravda.
Weapons deliveries are primarily symbolic
“The new German government still has time to fundamentally change its policy of supporting aggression against Ukraine. But if this does not happen, society will come to the inevitable conclusion that Schönbach was killed not for his shocking statements, but for illicit disclosure of the true position was punished by the government,” the journalists say. In fact, the Ukrainian criticism is justified on many points: It is at least questionable whether the categorical no to arms deliveries to Ukraine with reference to Germany’s historical responsibility is still up to date. Especially since the Ukrainians, with more than five million civilian casualties, were among the greatest victims of the Second World War.
The issue of supplying arms to Kiev is primarily symbolic. Presumably they would not be of much use to Ukraine in a direct confrontation with Russia, and Kyiv probably does not need them as urgently as Ambassador Melnyk has portrayed. Weapons production in Ukraine is already broad; the country ranked twelfth among the world’s largest arms exporters between 2016 and 2020, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. However, Berlin’s categorical rejection of Kiev suggests that Ukraine is partly responsible for the current escalation – and this impression is completely wrong.
Since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj took office in May 2019, Ukraine has been pursuing a serious peace policy with a view to the Donbass war. This is all the more remarkable given that just a few days after Zelenskyy’s election victory, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree granting residents of the “people’s republics” there the right to Russian citizenship. With the risky mutual troop withdrawals, new prisoner exchanges and the first successful ceasefire in the summer of 2020, which surprisingly lasted half a year, Ukraine wanted to at least put an end to the trench warfare on the front line.
Nord Stream 2 is an expression of German cynicism
With its troop deployment in spring 2021, which practically never stopped, Russia dashed these hopes. In September, Moscow effectively held its parliamentary elections in the occupied territory. With the opening of the Russian market for goods from the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and the takeover of the most important industrial companies in the region by a Russian entrepreneur loyal to the system, the Kremlin is also carrying out an obvious economic annexation of the occupied part of the Donbass.
Under these circumstances, Germany should not only keep all options for supporting Ukraine open in principle. Germany and the West must also reconsider their views on the Minsk Agreement. Of course, the agreement remains important as the only diplomatic basis for settling the Donbass war. But it must be perfectly clear that Ukraine is rightly not fully complying with Russia issuing hundreds of thousands of passports in the occupied territory.
Above all, however, Ukraine struggles with the fact that the federal government does not want to understand its security concerns about Nord Stream 2. Kiev sees it this way: Without the start of the first pipeline in 2011 and 2012, neither the annexation of Crimea nor the war in Donbass would have happened in this form. From the outset, Ukraine viewed the construction of Nord Stream 2 during the Donbass war critically for security reasons, because from the perspective of Kiev, the chance of an attack on Ukraine is smaller if Putin has to pump gas through the country. Most Ukrainian observers speak of Germany’s great cynicism. Since the traffic light government took office, this impression has been reinforced.
Putin needs a clear message
Militarily, a Russian attack on Ukraine remains rather unlikely. But there is still an atmosphere of unrest, fueled by a hacker attack on Ukraine’s state-owned websites in mid-January and, of course, by the more than 100,000 Russian soldiers at the border. It cannot be ruled out that Russia will carry out an attack on a specific location like Mariupol. And in Ukraine nobody knows at the moment what kind of support they can expect from the West.
The joint statement by Germany and the USA on Nord Stream 2 also contributed significantly to the uncertainty. There is talk of sanctions against Russia if Moscow uses the pipeline as a “political weapon”. However, concrete measures are not mentioned. And even Chancellor Scholz does not manage to answer the question clearly as to whether he can imagine gas flowing through Nord Stream 2 if the conflict continues.
Contrary to what Markus Söder claims, the Kremlin must be told clearly and in advance what sanctions would follow even in the event of a smaller attack. Steps that could harm Germany itself must also be considered. Because Berlin is at least partly responsible for the current situation – and Ukraine has also earned this support with its attempt at a peace policy in the Donbass.