According to new calculations, the number of corona patients in the intensive care units could increase by 80 to 300 in a single week. The difference is crucial – there is a risk of overload at the top. If the Federal Council still wants to intervene, it will have to do it quickly.
At the height of the Omikron wave, hospitals have to reckon with an additional 80 to 300 intensive care patients in a single week, as new model calculations by the task force show.
Eyes shut and go for it? This scenario is becoming increasingly likely. It is not to be expected that the Federal Council will adopt stricter measures against the rapid spread of the coronavirus on Wednesday. It is conceivable that he will send stricter rules for large-scale events or other tightenings to the cantons for consultation – he could hardly go any further.
This could be crucial. If politicians still want to try to slow down the omicron wave, they would have to do so quickly – an intervention later might no longer make sense. This conclusion allows the published on Tuesday Assessment of the situation the federal task force. In it, the scientists present the results of new model calculations. They emphasize that this is not a forecast, but a “rough estimate” with transparent assumptions in various scenarios. It is sometimes decisive whether people change their behavior, whether there are fewer contacts.
More Omikron patients in Geneva
With the task force model, the omikron wave is expected to peak sometime in the next two weeks. During this phase, 10 to 30 percent of the population would be infected in a single week. Thereafter, the number of infections is likely to decrease relatively quickly in February.
What happens in the hospitals during the hot phase? So far, the number of hospitalizations has been falling across Switzerland. According to the task force, however, data from Geneva University Hospital show that the number of Omikron patients there is increasing. The new virus variant is more widespread in French-speaking Switzerland than in German-speaking Switzerland. Although it is considered milder than Delta, it can bring many sick people to hospital because of the large number of infected people.
Up to 10,000 patients in a week?
The task force model shows a wide range in the different scenarios: In the heaviest week, the number of Covid-19 patients in the hospitals could increase by a total of 1,500 to 10,000. In the most difficult phase to date in autumn 2020, the hospitals had to cope with 1,800 corona cases in a single week.
The capacities are particularly tight in the intensive care units. According to the new calculations, it is to be expected that at the peak of the Omikron wave, 80 to 300 additional patients would have to be admitted within a week. If the number is at the upper edge, some of them would have to make do with treatment in a general ward due to a lack of free beds.
The conclusion of the task force: “These estimates show great uncertainty about the disease burden to be expected in the next two months, with a risk of a significant excess of capacity.” This applies not only to intensive care, but also to acute departments.
Task force open to shorter quarantine
A further complicating factor is that many illness-related absences are to be expected, especially among hospital staff. The same applies to schools and the whole private sector. The task force is open to easing the quarantine and isolation. President Tanja Stadler mentioned this option: Only people who lived with infected people should go into quarantine, and they too should only be quarantined for five days instead of seven. The same deadline could apply to infected people, provided they no longer have symptoms.
The Federal Council is expected to make a decision on this matter on Wednesday. Several cantons and business associations are calling for a reduction in quarantine and isolation.