(CercleFinance.com) – The index of leading indicators fell for the eighth consecutive month in October, the Conference Board announced on Friday, which suggests, according to him, a possible recession in the months to come.
This so-called precursor index compiled by the employers’ organization fell by 0.8% to 114.9 last month, after having already fallen by 0.5% in September.
For comparison, analysts were anticipating a further drop of 0.5% in October.
“The reversal in leading indicators reflects the degraded outlook for consumers in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as weak expectations for residential construction and the manufacturing sector”, explains Ataman Ozyildirim, the director of economic research at the Conference Board.
The organization says it forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8% this year in the United States, with a recession “likely to start around the end of the year and extend until mid-2023”.
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