(CercleFinance.com) – Economists at Goldman Sachs say they have revised the probability of a recession in the United States downwards in view of the recent resistance of economic activity.
The American investment bank now assesses the probability of a recession across the Atlantic at 20% over the next 12 months, instead of 25% in a previous forecast.
This level is slightly higher than the average probability of 15% characterizing the post-war period (with generally the occurrence of a recession every seven years), but well below the median of 54% established by the analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal, noted the Wall Street firm.
According to Goldman Sachs, the latest economic indicators show that inflation could be reduced to ‘acceptable’ levels without triggering a contraction in activity.
The establishment highlights the ‘resilient’ economy of the United States, as illustrated by the 2.3% growth in GDP recorded in the second quarter and the decline in the unemployment rate to below 3.6% in June .
While its teams say they are counting on a further 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed at the end of the month, Goldman also believes that this tightening should be the last of its current tightening cycle.
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