At the Munich Security Conference, Federal Foreign Minister Baerbock has to defend herself against the accusation of refusing arms to Ukraine. Her US colleague Blinken jumps to her side.
If you stay away from an event, you risk that people will not talk to you, but about you. This is how the Russian government is currently doing in Munich. For the first time in more than three decades, the Munich Security Conference is taking place without Russian participation.
The head of the security conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, regretted his absence. It is a great pity that the Russian government does not take the opportunity to explain its point of view. Ischinger is chairing the conference for the last time, and next year former German UN Ambassador Christoph Heusgen will chair it.
However, the Russian perspective has been known for years. On Thursday, Russia wrote to the United States demanding that it withdraw its armed forces from Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe and the Baltic States. “We are convinced that the national potential in these zones is quite sufficient,” says the letter, which is a response to the US written response to the security guarantees requested by Russia. In addition, Russia is demanding a renunciation of NATO enlargements and a guarantee that Ukraine will never join the alliance.
“This is not a Ukraine crisis, it is a Russia crisis”
Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressly referred to this letter in her speech in Munich. She stressed that a Russian attack on Ukraine would have massive consequences for Russia, “financially, politically and economically.” She also emphasized: “We really don’t want these consequences. We want a serious dialogue about peace and security in our common Europe.”
However, one does not want to and cannot question “our jointly established security architecture”. “Yesterday’s reply letter from the Russian side sounds exactly like it, to my great regret,” Baerbock continued. She addressed Putin and the Russian Foreign Minister directly: “Mr. President Putin, dear colleague Sergey Lavrov, in your letter of reply you emphasize that freedom from alliances also includes the principle that security must not come at the expense of others. Yes, we have that in common agreed,” she emphasized. “We are expressly committed to this principle. But that’s why we have to talk about the deployment of troops on the eastern Ukrainian border, which of course is at the expense of Ukraine.”
With the deployment of troops on its border with Ukraine, Russia is “uttering an absolutely unacceptable threat,” said Baerbock: “To Ukraine, but also to all of us and our peace architecture in Europe.” She rejected the common notion that the current conflict is a Ukraine crisis. “This crisis is not a Ukraine crisis, it is a Russia crisis.”
“The Russian threat is still real”
Unlike Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Baerbock expressly said that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is also part of the possible sanctions against Russia should there be an attack on Ukraine. In such a case, Germany is ready “to pay a high economic price,” she said. “That’s why all options are on the table for me, for us, including Nord Stream 2.” Scholz has used the phrase “all options are on the table” several times, both in interviews and in the White House and Kremlin. He left no doubt that he also meant Nord Stream 2, but always avoided the term.
Baerbock made it clear that she doubts Russian reports of a troop withdrawal. There were encouraging signals, but “the Russian threat is still real,” said the Foreign Minister. “This is now one of the most dangerous moments where provocation and disinformation can escalate.”
In his welcoming address at the start of the conference, UN Secretary-General António Guterres made it clear just how dangerous the current situation in the conflict between Russia and the West is. During the Cold War there were mechanisms in place to prevent direct military confrontations between the great powers. These don’t exist today. “I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Guterres said, “but if it did, it would be catastrophic.” Now is the time to de-escalate. “Geopolitical differences are rarely resolved, but they must be managed.”
Klitschko demands guns
In a joint panel discussion with Baerbock, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized how close the agreements between the US and Germany are. “I think Putin was a little surprised,” said Blinken, at how solidly the West reacted. He expressed fears that Russia had decided to stage false provocations in order to have a reason to attack Ukraine.
The mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, spoke from the audience and urged German arms deliveries to his country. “Thank you for the 5000 helmets,” he said towards Baerbock, “but that’s not enough”.
Baerbock replied that the federal government had received a new list from Ukraine with requests for military aid and promised to examine it. However, she did not give Klitschko any hope of arms deliveries. Instead, she explained that Germany has restrictive arms export guidelines for historical reasons. To this end, the Federal Republic of Ukraine has provided financial and diplomatic support. It is important that Ukraine is not destabilized from within by an economic collapse. Therefore, financial support is just as important as military aid.
In addition, Baerbock argued that the Normandy format, in which Germany and France mediate between Ukraine and Russia, would no longer work if Germany were to supply arms to Ukraine. That too would be a burden on Ukrainian security. Blinking explicitly supported this position. “We not only reacted in a coordinated manner, but also in a complementary manner,” he said.