War in Ukraine: does the Ukrainian army have the means to succeed in its counter-offensive?

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has started in the east of the country. And Westerners are holding their breath because a military victory would allow Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength with Russia. But will the army of kyiv be able to repel the army of Moscow? “The Ukrainians have taken the time to carefully prepare their offensive. The goal is to break through the lines to hope to achieve some valuable objectives such as Berdiansk, Melitopol or possibly Mariupol”, informs the microphone of Europe 1 Léo Péria-Peigné, armament researcher and capacity expert at Ifri’s Security Studies Center.

For the researcher, however, this should not be enough “to force the Russians to negotiate. If the Ukrainians reach the Sea of ​​Azov in particular, they will be in a very favorable position to do a lot of harm to Crimea by cutting it off completely from its terrestrial lines of communication. Now, if they fail, that the military potential of the brigades formed by the West is destroyed, it risks becoming very complicated”.

The two choices open to Western supporters of Ukraine

In the event of failure, Léo Péria-Peigné believes that “Western supporters of Ukraine will have two choices: either push for negotiations so that it stops because they no longer have the means to support it, or going a step further to consider different techniques, knowing that Ukraine will probably go on the defensive if this is the case, to protect themselves from the attacking potential that Russia may be able to reconstitute in this period of time – there”.

For the moment, while fierce fighting is currently taking place on the front line, the Ukrainians are already claiming some breakthroughs within the Russian defense lines. The researcher at Ifri’s security studies center draws up an inventory of the two forces at the microphone of Europe 1. “The Russian army is scattered over more than a thousand kilometers of front, when the Ukrainian army, also in a defensive and scattered position, managed to gather several brigades, including brigades trained and equipped by Westerners. “

Material and manpower problems on the Russian side

“Now, we have to see how this effort can be spread out over time”, continues Léo Péria-Peigné, “and if Westerners have the capacity to replace the destroyed vehicles they have sent.” For the researcher, it will be more difficult to replace the German battle tanks, the Leopards, than the armor provided by the Americans.

According to the expert interviewed by Europe 1, “the Ukrainian army is facing a (Russian) army which has separated part of its workforce to possibly machine-gun its own soldiers who would tend to withdraw. So, we can estimate that the morale is also not looking good opposite, knowing that the material and staffing problems are already well known from the studies carried out since the autumn”. On Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin notably acknowledged that Russia lacked high-precision ammunition and drones.