This Wednesday, the Finnish government released an analysis of changes in Finland’s security environment. This text insists on the fact that joining NATO would provide a “considerably greater” deterrent to an attack on the country. Coincidence or not of the calendar, the Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, was today on a visit to Sweden, another country which is not a member of NATO but which no longer excludes joining the Alliance in the coming months. The hypothesis of a candidacy for the two countries is becoming clearer.
“Their traditional strategic posture was that of neutrality, so we are not participating in an alliance. This posture made a lot of sense during the Cold War. After this, the two countries joined NATO’s partnership for peace, which allows them to have the advantage of interoperability without having the political disadvantages, recounts Olivier Kempf, associate researcher at the Foundation for strategic research and director of the strategic consultancy La Vigie. They did not feel threatened, especially as European development in defense was taking place at the same time”.
More than 60% of the Finnish population in favor of membership
But the war in Ukraine changed things. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin now says that Finland will decide “within a few weeks” on a candidacy for the Atlantic Alliance and even thinks that “it will happen quite quickly”. On the Swedish side, the Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, also evolved on the subject and indicated at the end of March that she “in no way excluded joining NATO” even if she recalled today that “nothing is without risk”. “With the war in Ukraine, the two countries realized that partnership was not enough, just like article 42-7 of the Treaty of the European Union and that nothing replaced article 5 of the Treaty of the Atlantic Alliance”, analyzes Olivier Kempf.
However, the two leaders are members of a social democratic party, historically opposed to joining NATO. But in both cases, the party is strongly pushed by its opponents. In Finland as in Sweden, even the extreme right has reviewed its copy and indicated that it would support a possible candidacy. “Social Democrats have always been concerned with peaceful discourse and it seemed to them that neutrality was the way to contribute to this policy. It is a political development but it is also due to the electorate, a population much more open on the subject. These are democracies that must pay attention to what their people say,” observes Olivier Kempf. In Finland, support for membership, which rarely exceeded 25% in opinion polls, has tripled to now stand above 60%.
“NATO is above all a Western club”
On the NATO side, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, assured at the beginning of April that he was “sure that the thirty member countries of NATO would welcome Finland with open arms” and that a decision could be taken quickly. An exceptional Alliance summit is scheduled for June 29 and 30 in Madrid.
Russia has already warned Finland and Sweden that membership would have “political and military consequences”. Finland, which shares 1,340 kilometers of border with Russia, has been threatened with “negative consequences” in the event of a candidacy for NATO. But for Olivier Kempf, “the Russian military are very busy with the war in Ukraine, they will emerge weakened from this war and they will not be able to do much”.
“NATO is above all a Western club. The question of accepting the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance does not even arise. NATO cannot refuse European countries, in the zone of the treaty, which fulfill the procedure in terms of stability and admissibility”, also believes Olivier Kempf.