When countries trade with each other, their interest in war dwindles. The prevailing opinion in recent decades has been that the economic damage would be too great for both of them. But what remains of the concept of “peace through trade” now that Russia is waging a war of aggression against Ukraine? Andreas Wirsching is a historian and looks back a few years.
SRF News: In the face of Russia’s invasion, where was the West’s fallacy? Where does “peace through trade” reach its limits?
Andreas Wirsching: That’s not an easy question to answer on the one hand, but on the other hand the moment when Russia collapsed can be clearly dated. Under Boris Yeltsin and in the early days of Vladimir Putin, President since 2000, there were still hopes of being able to establish a kind of modernization partnership with Russia, particularly with regard to trade and investment.
In 2007, the propaganda that Russia was threatened by the West began explicitly.
That tipped over sometime after the turn of the millennium. Namely with Putin’s speech at the Munich Security Conference of 2007. There he firmly criticized the so-called humanitarian interventions of the West (including in Kosovo, editor’s note) and passed this off as an aggressive act threatened by the West – above all by NATO – has explicitly begun. Shortly thereafter, the Russian war against Georgia continued, with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the destabilization of eastern Ukraine.
Despite the mutual dependence – especially in the energy sector – Putin started the aggressive war against Ukraine…
One even has to say that this was one of the wrong speculations of the West and especially of German politics. The construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was, so to speak, an attempt to establish bilateralism with the Russians on the basis of common economic interests. And this attempt failed brutally.
The international world economy has not been the same since Russia attacked Ukraine.
It must also be added that, despite significant warnings, this attempt continued until the pipeline was completed. And now the gas pipeline through the North Sea lies idle and will certainly not be used for the foreseeable future. That was a big misjudgment based on the hope of a win-win situation. We will still feel the consequences.
How far-reaching is this experience that Europe is now having with Russia? Will this shape globalization for a long time?
I do believe that these experiences are very decisive. After all, it is the first war of aggression against a sovereign state that we have seen in Europe since 1945. The Ukraine war can only be compared to a limited extent with the Yugoslav wars, which were veritable civil wars. In this respect, the Russian attack on Ukraine is an enormous turning point, and it is not yet known where it will really lead.
The Russian attack on Ukraine is a major turning point and it is unclear where it will lead.
Even if – as we hope – the guns are soon silent in Ukraine, it will be a long time before Russia can be reintegrated into the global economy. There are forecasts that this will take a generation after the end of the war. But one thing is clear: the world, and with it the international world economy, has not been the same since Russia attacked Ukraine.
The conversation was conducted by Simone Hulliger.