The shortage of soldiers in Ukraine is increasing over time. In order to simplify the enlistment of new soldiers, laws are now to be adjusted. For example, the age limit for unrestricted military service is to be lowered – from 27 to 25 years. Eastern Europe expert Andreas Umland on the current situation in Kiev.
SRF News: How do you perceive the domestic political dispute over the mobilization laws?
Andreas Umland: It’s a very heated dispute that also involves constitutional rights and human rights when it comes to the punishment of those who refuse military service. But it is also a quasi-inevitable dispute because the army now simply needs new people to replace the soldiers who have often been serving since 2022, or at least to give them the opportunity to take a vacation. This is now a forced situation for the Ukrainian leadership – there are not enough volunteers left who are willing to serve for the not particularly good pay.
How does the population assess the need for additional recruitment?
I think hardly anyone is against it in principle and has doubts about the necessity of this new recruitment. But when it comes to your own life, your own family, so to speak, then many people don’t want their son, brother or father to be drafted.
Many Ukrainian men of military age are said to have fled abroad. We are talking about around 650,000 men. Are they now being increasingly targeted?
Yes, that is also one aspect of the whole problem. However, a distinction must be made here between the men who are abroad and are actually fit for military service or are covered by the Ukrainian mobilization law, so to speak, and those who are not drafted anyway – for health reasons or because, for example, they are fathers of three or more children.
In principle, these men abroad are particularly interesting for Ukraine because they then do not have to be withdrawn from the Ukrainian economy or the Ukrainian state.
In principle, these men abroad are particularly interesting for Ukraine because they then do not have to be withdrawn from the Ukrainian economy or the Ukrainian state. The question is also: If more men are now drafted, how will they be replaced in their companies and in their institutions?
How many soldiers does the army need?
We are now talking about around half a million who would have to be drafted in order to replace those who were wounded and killed, in order to be able to send home those who now have to be replaced and who have served for a long time. This is a relatively high number for Ukraine. Ukraine is one of the larger nations in Europe, a medium-sized nation with around 40 million inhabitants, so that is possible. But that is a relatively high number for Ukraine.
Ukraine lacks soldiers and additional recruitment is difficult. Does that ultimately play into Russia’s hands?
Russia has enough money because the sanctions are not working properly to make it attractive for the poorer sections of Russia to join the army.
Yes, of course. This is also an advantage that Russia has. Russia has a larger population and enough money because the sanctions are not working properly to make it attractive for the poorer sections of Russia to join the army. That is why Russia does not have these mobilization problems to any great extent, at least not yet. Ukraine is simply not in a financial position to finance the army service, which is very risky, and all the social measures that go with it, as generously as Russia.
The interview was conducted by Ivan Lieberherr.