Given the violence in the Middle East, it is almost forgotten that the war in Ukraine continues to rage unabated. Russia is currently trying to conquer the small Ukrainian town of Avdiivka. A situation report on the war on the Russian and Ukrainian sides with the SRF foreign editor and Russia expert David Nauer.
How is the Russian offensive on Avdiivka going?
The small town of Avdiivka has long been surrounded by the Russians on three sides. Now the Russian army is trying to completely encircle the city and ultimately conquer it. If this were to succeed, it would be a major symbolic success for Moscow – and a hard blow to the morale of Ukrainians. However, the Russian attacks have so far been unsuccessful. The Russians lost dozens of vehicles and many soldiers. Nevertheless, the massive Russian attack came as a surprise to many observers. The impression of an exhausted army was deceptive; the Russians still had reserves and could attack.
How is the Ukrainian offensive in the south going?
The Ukrainian offensive in the south of the front is stalled. The Ukrainians have partially broken through the Russian main defense line, but have not been able to make any progress for weeks. There are constant battles without the front moving. Now winter is coming soon, which will make advances even more difficult. At the moment there is a cruel stalemate in Ukraine with ongoing fighting with many deaths every day. The Ukrainian civilian population is also suffering massively from the war of attrition.
Legend:
A resident of Avdiivka, whose house was destroyed in a Russian attack near the front line in the Donetsk region in late August 2023.
Keystone/EPA/Alex Babenko
What further development is likely?
There is no apparent willingness for talks between Russia and Ukraine at the moment. The Kremlin still has the goal of uncompromisingly conquering and subjugating large parts of Ukraine. The Ukrainians, for their part, also want to continue fighting and liberate all Russian territories. Both sides believe they will be successful through military means. In the worst case, it could take years before the war of attrition ends.