We blow…– After several complicated weeks, the market offers us some respite. the Bitcoin is still in a period of indecision, stuck between $45,000 and $35,000. This range will not last forever, it would be positive for the stock market to recover to see the king of cryptocurrencies rise again. So the decline is over? Let’s see what technical analysis tells us…
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Bitcoin: still in indecision, very close to high volatilities:
Last week’s edition referred to the volatility to come with this strong contraction whether on the course and on the RSI. We are probably close to resolution. The RSI should come out of the top of this triangle. The momentum would then be conducive to a upward resolution of this range between $45,000 and $35,000. As long as Bitcoin does not close above $45,800, do not cry victory. The macroeconomic context is complicated and could still weigh heavily on the markets.
The Risk Offs on hiatus
Gold: are the bulls regaining strength?
Gold is currently on the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) of the movement that started in early August 2021. This is a favorable location for buyers. You have to hold on to that first stop if gold enthusiasts want to see the asset do a new all-time high in the coming weeks.
The momentum is still in favor of buyers in weekly and daily time units. Seems like it’s just a break before another attempt to break out of the all-time high.
For Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, let’s hope the movement weakens near the all-time high. Indeed, if gold goes into an uptrend again, it would show an appetite for risk off assets.
The dollar index in range
The dollar index is blocked in the shorts loading area:
The dollar index is in uptrend on a daily basis since May 2021. When the dollar is weak, Bitcoin is able to express itself well. That’s why we’re looking for everything sign of weakness for the dollar index. He is currently in tidy in the shorts reload zone, an area where sellers can regain control of the movement.
For the moment, there is nothing confirmed. Unclear if buyers are recharging energy or if this is the end of a bullish move. We have to wait for the dollar index to come out of the range.
US market: stocks are recovering!
The S&P changes momentum
The S&P 500 is recovering and break the bearish trendline initiated in January 2022. The trendline is broken and the structure forms at the contact of the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). The price has a good chance of ending up in the shorts reload area. It will then be necessary to pay attention to the return of the sellers. Thanks to the sinking of 50 of RSI, the momentum on this index is bullish on a daily basis.
Buyers managed to maintain $4,200 as support. On a daily basis, things are getting better and this is very positive for cryptocurrencies. It will be necessary to be vigilant in case of return in the area of reloading of shorts between $4,550 and $4,650. For the moment, it is possible to know a false bounce who would take the course under $4,200.
We’ll see in the coming weeks what players come up with on this index, but it’s positive to see a reaction from buyers here. All is not won for the bulls, it will be necessary structure on a higher time scale to confirm.
Coinbase is still feverish
Coinbase stock does not confirm anything at this time. The stock is still making descending lows and highs and staying bearish momentum on a daily basis. Coinbase is a great example that shows that breaking the bearish trendline is not enough. Indeed, it is also necessary to structure on the other side of the trendline. This is not the case for the moment because the price is content to follow this trendline.
The momentum is encouraging, it remains to break the downward trendline. The area of 50 of ROI that makes resistance since December 2021 could give way and then we could experience a correction of this bearish movement with the objective of the first stop located at $234.
Today, there is nothing technically concrete about this action. We need confirmations whether on the RSI and on the course. the disinterest cryptocurrencies is still present in the American financial markets. It seems very important to regain interest in this type of action to show that the players are interested in cryptocurrencies.
Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain, it’s heating up!
MARA defends very well the support at about $20. If the action succeeds in freeing itself from $27.5 then $31it could form a new low like in the summer of 2021. This is an action that is very correlated to Bitcoinit would therefore be very positive to see the action structure bullish reversals in contact with the substrate.
The momentum, on the other hand, came out of the top of its compression. The momentum is bullish on a daily basis and could allow the action to extract itself from its tidy between $29 and $20. A fence above $31 would make it possible to envisage a return to the first stop at $44.
For its part, Riot Blockchain is also trying to get out of its tidy between $14 and $20. The action is very close to strong resistance at $20 that will have to be broken in an attempt to reversing the bearish momentum on a daily basis.
US equities reacted well. The buying reaction in US financial markets is encouraging, but the decline is not officially over yet. The Coinbase action remains very fragile and this remains the big black point of this point Macro Weekly. The other actions related to cryptocurrencies could structure a reversal in the coming days. As long as there are no confirmations, we must remain vigilant. We are not immune to a macroeconomic context that would continue to worsen. Bitcoin is heading towards resistance. This is the fifth time that the king of cryptocurrency will attempt to break through the resistance. The more a resistor is tested, the more fragile it is, let’s hope it’s the right one.
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