(Boursier.com) — After recording its worst weekly performance since March 2020 (-10.2%), the CAC40 rebounded by 3.28% this week, to 6,260 points this Friday evening. However, this start appears very fragile as the situation in Ukraine remains tense to say the least, the Russian army continuing its offensive by bombarding the country’s major cities. Against this backdrop, European Union leaders meeting in Versailles on Thursday and Friday agreed on a plan for ending the EU’s fossil fuel dependence on Russia by 2027, with a first stage in mid-May concerning oil. The G7 should also soon announce a new set of sanctions against Moscow.
This gloomy news further reinforces inflationary pressures via the rise in most commodities (the suspension of nickel prices on the LME is the most striking example) and threatens global growth. In the United States, inflation in February, published on Thursday, reached 7.9% over one year, the highest since January 1982, even before the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis!
On Thursday, the ECB, in a highly anticipated meeting, came as a bit of a surprise when it announced that it would accelerate the withdrawal of its support measures in the face of soaring inflation, despite the Ukraine crisis which brought it to revise down the outlook for growth in the euro zone. Observers expected the ECB to be more cautious and slow the pace of its normalization.
In this highly uncertain environment, the index VIX volatility, also known as the “fear index”, remains around 30 pts, well above its historical average of 20 pts.
The dollar is taking advantage of its status as a safe haven and is trading at its highest level in two years against the euro (1 euro for $1.095 this Friday evening). Gold is trading around $1,977 while Bitcoin is trading below $40,000 on Coindesk. Finally, the barrel of oil suffered some profit taking this week after its mad surge. Brent (May contract) nevertheless remains above $110 in London.
VALUES
* McPhy (+32.7%), Albioma (+17.8%), Neoen (+14.9%) are among the ten strongest increases of the week on the SBF120 in Paris. Profit taking on crude this week hasn’t stopped traders from continuing to pounce on renewable energy producers. Note also the presence ofEDF (+17.1%), well helped by new rumors of nationalization, or even para-petroleum groups CGG (+27.4%) and Vallourec (+15.2%).
* Eramet soared 15.6% and continued to benefit from soaring nickel prices. The mining group takes off already shows an impressive jump of 80% in 2022! ‘Overall, it seems that all the planets are aligned for Eramet to generate very good results in 2022’, AlphaValue said at the start of the week after having raised its opinion on the file from ‘reduce’ to ‘accumulate’.
* Ruby climbed 15.1%, while the group delivered growth in its current operating income of 7% in 2021 to €392 million, barely 5% below the record level of 2019. Net income Group share is up 4% compared to 2020 and is 5% below the level reached in 2019, which included 100% of Rubis Terminal. Rubis will propose an increase in the dividend to 1.86 euros. The firm said it has no operations or assets in Ukraine and does not source from Ukrainian or Russian suppliers. The group, now well present in ‘green’ energy after the takeover of Photosol at the end of 2021 and the acquisition of a stake in HDF Energywhich itself soared 18% this week, also benefited from flows to the sector.
* EDF (+17.1%), while according to ‘Bloomberg’, the French state is again studying the scenario of nationalization. The government would thus consider relaunching an ambitious plan to nationalize Electricité de France and reorganize its activities by focusing on nuclear production, people familiar with the matter told the agency. The chaos in the energy market exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is said to have reinforced Paris’s desire to restructure its largest electricity supplier. Officials are said to have held preliminary discussions with potential advisers on the idea of a buyout of EDF’s minority shareholders and delisting.
* Valneva climbed 13%, after the announcement of the success of its vaccine against chikungunya. The group thus announced the success of the pivotal Phase 3 trial of its single-injection vaccine candidate against chikungunya, VLA1553. The positive final analysis included six-month follow-up data and confirmed the initial trial results announced in August 2021. Valneva now plans to begin the regulatory pre-submission process with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the second quarter of 2022. The group also now expects to receive a positive recommendation in April from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for its inactivated vaccine candidate against Covid-19. 19. Following this conditional clearance, the company is expected to begin delivering planned doses of VLA2001 to European countries during the second quarter of 2022.
* Eurazeo takes 10.1% after the presentation of its annual accounts. On the strength of record results, the investment company will offer the distribution of 3 euros per share with an ordinary dividend of 1.75 euro, up 17%, and an exceptional dividend of 1.25 euro. The group led by Virginie Morgon saw its assets under management (AUM) jump by 42% over 12 months to 31 billion euros while its Net Revalued Assets (ANR) per share stood at 117.8 euros, up 40% (dividend included). Consolidated net profit group share stands at 1.58 MdsE, against 35.8 Mds in 2020. The management now intends to double its assets under management which could reach 60 MdsE within 5 to 7 years, under normal market conditions. Eurazeo specified that the direct exposure of the group’s portfolio to Ukraine and Russia is extremely limited. Among the opinions of brokers of the day, Oddo BHF revalued the file from 92 to 100 euros with an opinion to ‘outperform’.
* Saint Gobain wins 9%. The firm, through its subsidiary specializing in insulation ISOVER, will invest 120 million euros from 2022 and over the next few years to increase its insulation production capacities in France and support the acceleration of the energy renovation. These investments will relate both to increasing the capacity of ISOVER’s existing production lines and to creating a new line.
Conversely, * Houses of the world down 6.6% despite the presentation of solid annual results. The distributor of furniture and decorative items recorded an Ebitda of 279.2 million euros in 2021 for sales of 1.31 billion euros, up 15.1% compared to the previous year and + 10.7% vs 2019. EBIT was at a record level of 124 million euros and the margin was 9.5%, at the top of the updated target range. “Despite a complex environment, our financial results were at the top of our forecast in terms of sales, profitability and cash generation,” said Julie Walbaum, CEO of the company. For 2022, the group is counting on “positive” sales growth, to be specified when visibility will be better. The EBIT margin should come out around 9%. The free cash flow will be between 65 and 75 million euros. The objectives for 2025 have been confirmed.
* Fnac-Darty lost 3.9% while the Czech businessman Daniel Kretinsky continued his rise in the group’s capital through the acquisition of securities on the market. In an opinion of the AMF, the company VESA Equity Investment which he controls, declared to have crossed upwards, on March 7, the thresholds of 10% of the capital and the voting rights of the distributor of cultural products and to hold 2,702. 770 shares representing as many voting rights, i.e. 10.10% of the capital and voting rights. “Depending on circumstances and market conditions, Vesa Equity Investment plans to continue its share purchases in order to increase its stake but does not intend to acquire control of Fnac Darty,” the firm said. based in Luxembourg.
* Valeo gives back 4.4%, which brings to 44% the purge of the file since January 1st… In addition to an environment where risk aversion still largely dominates, the group remains weighed down by the presentation of objectives judged too cautious for 2022 due to the current geopolitical and inflationary context.