Lhe fight against global warming is an opportunity to finally bring out a single voice within the African Union, of which Mr. Sall has just taken over the presidency for one year. In other words, his mandate could make it possible to lay the foundations for a continental energy transition based on the balance between vulnerability to climate change and the need to maintain sustained economic growth, which is essential for African countries.
How has it been so far?
The African Union has, until now – and not without difficulty – endeavored to concentrate its efforts on conflict prevention, the defense of human rights and even health.
In most of these areas, the divisions of the African Union have reduced the scope of its decisions and hindered the emergence of a common position on crucial subjects. The weight of dissension has thus removed the thorny issue of Western Sahara from the agenda of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union. Its refusal of interventionism multiplies the silences on certain crises, however serious, thus creating an impression of de facto “immobility”.
Likewise, its lack of courage in the face of the multiplication of coups d’etat undermines its legitimacy. How indeed can the suspension of Mali and Guinea from the work of the AU be justified when these two states are currently ruled by military juntas, which is also the case, even if there has been no outpouring of blood, from the Chad of Mahamat Idriss Déby, who remains a full member of the AU?
Being one of the rare subjects on which a consensus could be found, the fight against climate change should allow the emergence of a common pan-African voice. President Macky Sall should thus engage the AU to solve this delicate equation which is to know how the continent can begin its energy transformation without burdening its socio-economic development? In short, to pursue its growth while adopting a “low carbon profile”.
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Africa highly vulnerable to climate change
According to the most recent data, the African continent was, between 1751 and 2017, only responsible for 3% of CO2 emissions on an international scale. A share that collapses, if we consider sub-Saharan Africa alone without the Nigerian and South African giants, to 0.34% of global emissions.
Scientific studies, including the very recent multi-agency report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization, highlight the continent’s very high vulnerability to global warming and the seriousness of its consequences on populations, particularly in terms of agriculture and access at the water. In addition, the continent’s lack of infrastructure weakens its adaptability to climate change.
However, this reality in no way erases the aspiration – and the obligation – of African countries, whose greenhouse gas emissions are following an upward trend concomitant with the economic development of the continent, to also reduce their carbon impact. . The academic Mark New, director of the African Climate and Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town, thus draws up a prospective table taking into account the demographic evolution of the continent in which, without reversing the trend, the carbon footprint by African will increase until 2050, before stabilizing until 2100.
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“Committing a common but differentiated struggle”…
President Macky Sall has endeavored in recent months, and in particular on the UN platform, to draw the outlines, even though he was not yet President of the African Union, of an African model of the energy transition, based on a resolutely cross-border approach, on the continent’s own natural wealth and on the economic potential it can bring. Its strong support for the Great African Green Wall, which provides for the reforestation of a territory stretching from Senegal to Djibouti to combat desertification while promising 10,000 local jobs, is thus an eloquent, albeit symbolic, example.
But it is above all on the most structural aspects of the fight against global warming that President Macky Sall has made himself the herald of the fight against global warming, as he had successfully defended the extension of the moratorium on African debts last year.
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By committing to a “common but differentiated” fight against global warming, he reminds us that Africa is first of all a victim of global warming before being a culprit. A posture that he already adopted in 2018, defending the effective application of the Kyoto Protocol of the polluter pays principle, which aimed to make the major powers understand the need to bear the costs that will weigh on Africa. . A relevant approach, if we consider that the rich countries have not sufficiently helped the continent which has polluted the least, which should pollute the least tomorrow and which remains the most exposed to climate change.
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… in a true partnership logic…
His defense before the UN of shared-benefit trade agreements, intended to avoid policies of predation on the continent’s natural resources, is also shaping up to be one of his main battles at the head of the African Union. Then, his call for the mobilization of continental partners and international donors in favor of the Fund for the Electrification of Africa, which he had already called for during COP21 in Paris, is a pledge of good will to bring about a Africa partially freed from extractive energies. Actions which are intended to complement those already implemented, at the sub-regional or continental level, by ECOWAS.
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… which does not burn the stages
The question of the exit from extractive energies remains fundamental. It’s hard to prove Macky Sall wrong when he affirms to the Senegalese diaspora that the continent’s energy transition cannot take place without the massive use of gas – with which Africa is richly endowed – as a transition energy towards a renewable energy future. and that the growing refusal of Western countries to finance it could become an obstacle to its socio-economic development. Especially since, in terms of renewable energies, the continent is not left out. Different scenarios evoke a 67% share of renewable energies in the overall mix of sub-Saharan Africa by 2030.
The emergence of a common African voice on an issue as central as the climate would make the African Union all the more credible to position itself on those it is struggling to resolve, such as crisis prevention and conflict management. The new mandate of President Macky Sall is a unique opportunity to make this voice heard. This unique opportunity must not be missed.
* Jean Lévy is a former French ambassador, a former adviser to François Mitterrand. He teaches at the School of International and Political Studies (HEIP).