He reappeared on Monday, in military uniform, in a video released by the Russian group Wagner to declare that he was carrying out “reconnaissance and research activities to make Russia even greater and Africa even freer”. Two days later, he was on the list of passengers present in the crash of his plane, bound for Saint Petersburg. What happened ? If the circumstances of his death raise many doubts among observers, Evgueni Prigojine, emblematic figure of the Wagner group, leaves a colossal void behind him. The Russian group sees its brand considerably weakened and the death of its leader, as well as that of its right-hand man Dmitri Utkin, opens a door to the unknown concerning its activities in the Sahel region.
Redeal the cards
Established for several years, the businessman has succeeded in weaving an immense network in Africa: in the field of defense first, with the reinforcement of the Russian presence on the whole continent and the conclusion of about twenty agreements since 2015 between Moscow and various African countries; but also in finance, construction, influence or even mining and forestry. There was Wagner, of course, but the whole “Prigojine galaxy” has become orphaned.
Moreover, in a study published in September 2022 by the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (Inserm), researchers Maxime Audinet and Emmanuel Dreyfus recall that Russia has for a very long time been present through more official channels than those of Wagner, the two entities being complementary. It is therefore not impossible that Vladimir Putin seeks to redistribute the roles, and therefore the skills of the actors already present on the spot.
Already a replacement?
And according to the information of the newspaper Le Figaro, that’s what he’s already started doing. During the Russia-Africa summit, at the end of July, the Russian president “presented General Averianov, strongman of the GRU (General Directorate of Intelligence, editor’s note) to the Malians”, indicates to the daily Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory. in Moscow, stating that no member of Wagner was invited to this meeting. An indication of the Kremlin’s desire to move the lines in Africa before the death of Prigojine?
Still, Russia “will necessarily find a way to maintain its presence there”, adds the director of the Franco-Russian Observatory. Russian influence has considerably developed its base in the Sahel region, and its role in the various coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and more recently in Niger seems undeniable. It therefore seems rather unlikely that Wagner will disappear completely, even if an overhaul of his activities is inevitable.