The promise of full employment is becoming more and more hypothetical, except – perhaps – for one age group: seniors. In the last quarter of 2023, the number of unemployed, as defined by the International Labor Office, increased by 29,000 compared to the previous three months, standing at 2.33 million, according to a note released on Tuesday February 13 by INSEE. Across the entire territory (including overseas, except Mayotte), the unemployment rate now stands at 7.5% of the active population, or 0.4 points more compared to the end of 2022. This deterioration is however, accompanied by good news: the share of people exercising an activity – particularly those who are at the end of their career – is recovering a little (+ 0.1 point, to 58.8% among employees aged 55 to 64) .
The data made public on Tuesday are in line with an economic situation which is gradually becoming numb. In the fourth quarter of 2023, growth was completely sluggish, so the job creation machine stalled. The number of positions in the private sector even declined very slightly during this period: − 8,300 between the end of September and the end of December 2023, according to a provisional estimate from INSEE. Over one year, however, the trend remains positive, with numbers increasing by nearly 114,000, but the progression is three times less dynamic than in 2022 (+ 347,000).
In this context, it is not surprising to note that Emmanuel Macron’s slogan on full employment, with an unemployment rate around 5% in 2027, is less and less proclaimed in the elements of government language. Symbol of this almost unacknowledged renunciation: the notion of full employment, which evokes the dynamism of the “thirty glorious years” – from the Liberation until the first oil crisis of 1973-1974 – has disappeared from the titles of the functions occupied by the Minister of Labor, Catherine Vautrin, while she appeared in full in that of her predecessor, Olivier Dussopt.
A very daring project, “but achievable”
This change in position does not mean that the executive has abandoned all ambition. As part of the “new pact for life at work” announced by Mr. Macron in mid-April 2023, the power in place wants to achieve “full employment of seniors”. A numerical objective was even mentioned: the proportion of individuals aged 60 to 64 and holding a position should rise to 65%. “by 2030”while it was only 36.2% in 2022.
The project seems very daring, because it involves making a quantitative leap of nearly 30 points in less than a decade. For the record, the gain was only 13.3 points between 2012 and 2022. But several economists consider that the executive’s intentions are not preposterous.
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