Chronic. Still missed. Barely a month ago, on November 3, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, presented himself confident to the deputies, to give them details of the amending budget for the end of the year. If inflation was already eating away at purchasing power through the rise in electricity and fuel prices, this was only the consequence of the economic recovery with fanfare. As for Bercy’s macroeconomic forecasts, they already seemed out of date, but out of excess of caution. “The government’s growth assumption [+ 6,25 % attendus cette année ] should be exceeded “, indicated Mr. Le Maire, assuring that the tax receipts resulting from the better economic dynamics would go to the reduction of the deficit, probably lower than the 8% forecast.
A month later, the atmosphere has cooled noticeably, and not just because of the onset of winter frosts. The fifth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, combined with the appearance of the Omicron variant, has created an unpleasant feeling of déjà vu. Monday, December 6, three weeks before the end of the year holidays, the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, announced the closure of nightclubs for a month. He also called for promoting teleworking and greater respect for barrier gestures. Traders, tour operators and other cultural professionals are watching with anguish the development of the situation.
For the moment, the government is trying to reassure: discotheques and companies in the event sector penalized by this new turn of the screw will see their fixed costs fully covered and their employees will be able to benefit from partial unemployment. Bercy has not communicated on the cost of these new measures but is counting on the “pot” of 2 billion euros set aside for this purpose in the end-of-year amending budget to absorb these new expenses.
Old reflexes
Until then, the economy had nevertheless recovered spectacularly. On November 30, INSEE confirmed that gross domestic product grew by 3% in the third quarter. The country’s activity has returned to almost its pre-crisis level, barely 0.1% below its level in the fourth quarter of 2019. But will consumers go with the same going to shopping malls for their Christmas presents ? Won’t those who were planning stays abroad shift them? Will companies slow down their investment projects because of the lack of visibility?
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