The rise of the right-wing extremist was the surprise of the French election campaign. But Zemmour’s entry into the runoff seems increasingly unlikely. In the last few meters, he focuses on his core issue – and is already looking to the time after the elections.
Éric Zemmour relied on the power of images for his biggest election event: on Sunday on the Place du Trocadéro in Paris.
There are almost four months and around 20 kilometers as the crow flies between Eric Zemmour’s first and last major election event. After his first major appearance in December in a charmless exhibition hall in a northern suburb of Paris, he dared to make the final spurt to one of the most beautiful squares in the center of the capital, the Place du Trocadéro. Zemmour had the power of the images on his side: he and the dozen or so previous speakers stood on the terrace of the Palais de Chaillot, above them the blue spring sky, behind them the Eiffel Tower and at their feet tens of thousands of supporters waving the tricolore to them cheered.
According to Zemmour’s entourage, “the biggest event of this campaign” is trying to get the candidate back to where he started. With his demands for “zero immigration”, his open rejection of Muslims and some agitations, such as the middle finger held out to an angry passer-by, he repeatedly dominated the headlines. And he drove his competitors ahead of him with some polemics. At times he was second in polls, behind Emmanuel Macron. But since Russia attacked Ukraine, Zemmour’s campaign has definitely faltered.
Against Ukrainian refugees
The 63-year-old is one of those candidates who misjudged Vladimir Putin and his strategy. Not only because he said in December that he was betting that Russia would not attack Ukraine. In an interview four years ago, after the annexation of Crimea, Zemmour expressed his admiration for the Russian head of state. He wanted a French Putin because the Russian was the only head of state who could defend his country against everything, he had argued to the newspaper “L’Opinion”. Although Zemmour now condemns Putin as an aggressor (although he sees responsibility for the war with NATO), his positioning has damaged him – more than the other two “Putin friends”, the right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen and the left-wing extremist Jean- Luc Melenchon.
Unlike them, Zemmour initially spoke out against accepting refugees from Ukraine. He later put it into perspective: Visas can be given to those who have connections or family in France. However, he does not want an immigration tsunami based on emotions.
That should Zemmour in a society which shows solidarity and concern with the Ukrainians, have tasted some sympathy. In polls he has slipped to fourth place since the outbreak of war. He is separated by around 18 percentage points from favorite Macron and 9 percentage points from second-placed Marine Le Pen. The runoff election against the incumbent president seems out of reach.
But Zemmour has decided to keep quiet about unpleasant facts and to stake everything on one card. On the Place du Trocadéro, the narrative is that the battle can still be won. Before his appearance, he is announced as the next President, he calls to his supporters: “You are not a minority”, the polls are worth nothing.
Zemmour’s speech lasts a good hour. Above all, it revolves around his prime themes: French identity, love for France and the rejection of all those who are not prepared to “let France flow in their veins”, i.e. to “assimilate”. Again and again videos are shown on the big screens. From Zemmour during the election campaign, but also from parents whose children were murdered: by an Algerian, by a Somali and by the terrorists who caused a bloodbath in Paris on November 13, 2015. Zemmour promises that all criminal foreign nationals will be deported, as will those who have been out of work for six months.
He doesn’t say a single word about the war in Ukraine or its consequences for the lives of the French, above all the rising cost of living. Those who took offense to his positioning are presumably not standing in front of him today. The tens of thousands who ignore this applaud the former journalist’s anti-establishment discourse: us against “them”. I mean the politicians, the technocrats, the media. “We will win,” chanted Zemmour’s supporters. Elsewhere they shout “Macron – murderer” or “Out with the Arabs”. And again and again they sing the Marseillaise.
The general election at a glance
On the one hand, the same applies to Zemmour as to its competitors: In the last two weeks before the first ballot, those who are undecided have to be convinced. In addition, he hopes more than anyone else for the silent voters. Those who don’t dare to state their preference for the right-wing extremist in surveys – and then vote for him anyway. Because, as he claims, he is the only one speaking the truth.
On the other hand, the 63-year-old knows that he has to expand his base if he wants to have a say in politics in the country in the near future. Should it not be enough for the run-off election, then perhaps for a respectable result in the parliamentary elections in June. More aggressively than ever, Zemmour promoted the “unity of the right” on Sunday and claimed that he was the only one really “right-wing” in this election campaign. He also called on prominent members of the conservative Républicains and the right-wing national Rassemblement national to switch sides. Marine Le Pen’s niece, Marion Maréchal, is the most high-profile defector to date.
According to surveys, the supporters of the Rassemblement national have greater potential voters for Zemmour than among the Républicains; however, Le Pen has so far firmly rejected the concept of a “united right”. With the Conservatives, the fronts are less clear. Éric Ciotti, who lost in the primary, had made it public some time ago that he would vote for Zemmour if he were to win a runoff against Macron.
On Sunday, however, a small group of Ciotti’s party colleagues also resisted in a guest post against appropriation by right-wing extremists. The group around party president Christian Jacob wrote that the “rights of the Trocadéro” could not be those of Zemmour. Because Zemmour shows brutality towards the weaker in society and has invested so much time to rehabilitate Philipp Pétain – the head of state of the Vichy regime who was cooperating with Nazi Germany.
The “Trocadéro Right” has become a byword in France for the conservative wing of the Républicains. Two of its representatives, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon, had also held their main electoral rallies in the city’s western square. Zemmour alluded to this when he said he chose the location to avenge the right wing. However, neither Sarkozy nor Fillon had paved the way to the Élysée Palace in the postcard surroundings.