At the age of eight, Fariha Aumi experienced a flood of the century. There are now such floods every year in Bangladesh. The country is one of the most severely affected by climate change in the world. For Aumi and her family, the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is a matter of survival.
The small garden in front of the family house in Jashore was always full of plants. Everything that Fariha Aumi and her family needed, they planted themselves. Guava, pumpkin and watermelon were always part of the harvest – but above all papaya. The dark orange fruit was a main ingredient in the kitchen, recalls the now 22-year-old. In the city in western Bangladesh, everyone did it that way.
Today the landscape looks very different. Where papayas used to grow like weeds, today you can only see dry earth. Too often there have been floods – the earth has become salty. Hardly anything has grown in front of Aumi’s family’s house since 2013. “Our lifestyle has changed drastically since then,” says Aumi in a video interview from Jamalpur. “Even previous climate changes are already having a major impact on us.”
Aumi is now studying in Jamalpur, a city in the north of Bangladesh. During these months in particular, there are frequent floods. “When I was young, we saw floods like this maybe once every two years,” she says. “Today they happen two or even three times a year.” Hurricanes are becoming increasingly common in the south of the country. In other parts of the country it is drought or erosion.
As a child, Aumi didn’t know why floods and storms were becoming more common. “Today I understand that it is our own fault,” says the activist. “Or rather that the world’s politicians are to blame.” In 2018 she decided to join Fridays for Future.
What makes 0.5 degrees
Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world hardest hit by climate change. For hardly any other country does the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees warming make a greater difference. If the sea level rises even minimally, it will affect the entire country. Bangladesh is one of the five countries with the highest population density in low-lying coastal areas. Two thirds of the population live less than five meters above sea level. Almost 30 percent live directly on the coast. But the delta of Bangladesh, in which three rivers flow together, extends far into the country. So are those who do not live directly by the sea, exposed to sea level rise.
In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts shocking figures for coastal areas such as Bangladesh: Even if the 1.5-degree target is reached, the sea level will rise by around 50 centimeters by 2100. If global warming is limited to just 2 degrees, it will be around ten centimeters more by 2100. Doesn’t sound like a lot at first. But Alexander Nauels from Climate Analytics, an international organization that deals with climate policy analyzes, says: “If we look further into the future, the differences become much more serious.”
The ten centimeters is only the best-case scenario. If emissions continue to rise and the IPCC’s worst-case scenario becomes a reality – a scenario that assumes a rapid loss of large polar ice sheets – sea levels could rise by up to 2 meters by 2100 and by 5 meters by 2150. But for countries like Bangladesh, even the best scenarios have to be taken seriously: “These regions are incredibly vulnerable,” says Nauels. “Even small changes of every inch can make a huge difference.”
Cyclones, floods, biodiversity crisis
In addition, extreme cyclones will occur more frequently. For people who live in coastal regions, this means the risk of complete devastation. But people like Aumi and her family who do not live directly by the sea will also feel the consequences. “When such hurricanes approach, large parts of the country are affected by floods,” says Kira Vinke, head of the Center for Climate and Foreign Policy of the German Society for Foreign Policy. The region around the Bay of Bengal – the great delta in the country – is particularly prone to tropical storms, which occur with increasing intensity.
Aumi experienced one of the worst tropical storms in 2009, it was called “Aila”. Jashore was largely spared from the cyclone itself. But the floods remain burned into Aumi’s memory. The then eight-year-old watched trees being uprooted and flowing down a river in front of her window that had arisen out of nowhere. “It was a horror moment,” she says. 339 people were killed in the storm in Bangladesh. More than a million people became homeless.
With global warming, not only will storms and floods become more frequent. Mangroves are important for coastal protection in Bangladesh, as they slow down storm surges and prevent the effects of drastic weather events. If the warming is not limited to 1.5 degrees, these forests are in danger of collapse. “We know that important coastal ecosystems can no longer adapt when the temperature rises by 2 degrees,” says Nauels. “At 1.5 degrees, the chances are much greater that they will survive.” When the mangrove forests disappear, the coast becomes even more vulnerable to cyclones and floods – a dangerous vicious circle.
Climate adaptation is reaching its limits
Since everyone in the country is affected by climate change, the government is already spending a lot of money on climate adaptation measures. Houses are being built on stilts, and early warning and evacuation systems as well as emergency shelters are being developed. It is estimated that the country gives annually one billion dollars for climate adaptation. A sum that is actually hardly affordable for emerging and developing countries like Bangladesh: “Even a country that is economically not so strong needs more financial resources for increased coastal protection. The international community must provide adequate support in this context,” says Nauels.
Families in rural areas pay even more for climate adaptations – about twice as much annually as a report of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) shows. According to the report, households living in rural areas receive $ 154 million annually for climate remediation. They invest much more, however: “Poverty households spend their money on repairing damage to their homes and replacing animals or destroyed crops, and foregoing basic needs such as food, education and health,” the IIED report said .
That is why the industrialized countries pledged climate aid for developing countries in 2009. Between 2020 and 2025, 100 billion US dollars (86 billion euros) are expected to flow annually to finance climate adaptation measures. The rich countries of the world have realized that the poorer countries themselves are the least likely to contribute to climate change, but are most affected.
However, new calculations show that even the $ 100 billion will not be enough. As global warming progresses, it becomes more and more likely that adaptation strategies will eventually reach their limits. And then people will have to leave their homes. By 2050, 0.9 million people in Bangladesh could be relocated due to natural disasters. By 2100 this number will rise to 2.1 million people. However, the country is only for 0.28 percent of global CO2 emissions. For comparison: In Germany, a country with half as many inhabitants, the figure is around 2 percent. “Countries like Bangladesh depend on the industrialized countries to promote emission-free development,” says Kira Vinke.
Promises not kept
But the promises are not kept. The 1.5-degree target, climate aid: these are the goals of the industrialized countries that were missed. There is now consensus among scientists that 1.5 degrees should be exceeded. The $ 100 billion climate aid will also only be paid out in 2023.
People like Aumi pay the price for it. “I’m angry,” she says. But not because it is more exposed to climate change than its fellow activists in Germany. But because “promises are made but not kept”.
The young woman would like to return to Jashore after completing her studies. She wants to build a house. She would like to live near a forest, “so that I can always breathe fresh air,” as she says. “I want to have a community like I did when I was a kid.” She would like to stand in the garden with her neighbors and admire their papaya and guava. But with every further degree this dream moves further into the distance. “If the industrialized countries kept their promises, I could dream of this bright future without worries.”