Söder, Aiwanger and the Greens
All data on the state elections in Bavaria
October 8, 2023, 10:13 a.m
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Day of the decision in the Free State: In Bavaria, more than nine million people are called upon to redefine the balance of power in the Munich state parliament. The most important numbers and data at a glance.
The state elections in Bavaria are underway: The polling stations have been open since 8 a.m. Around 9.4 million eligible voters can cast their votes until 6 p.m. in order to determine the political direction of Bavarian state politics for the next five years.
Around 554,000 young voters are eligible to vote in this election for the first time. Every eligible voter has two votes, first vote and second vote. To determine the distribution of seats in the state parliament – unlike in a federal election – all first and second votes are added together and converted into mandates. The number of these “total votes” determines which party gets how many seats in the state parliament.
The CSU, with its top candidate Markus Söder – the incumbent Prime Minister – was unchallenged in the lead in all surveys until recently, but at 36 to 37 percent it did not go beyond its already historically poor election result from 2018 (37.2 percent).
After the leaflet affair involving FW boss Hubert Aiwanger, things initially went up significantly for the Free Voters. In individual surveys, the Free Voters got up to 17 percent. Most recently, the survey values settled at around 15 percent. In 2018 they got 11.6 percent.
Söder and Aiwanger have always stated that they want to continue their coalition, which has existed since 2018, even after the election. Unlike five years ago, Söder has ruled out an alliance with the Greens. It’s not just how well the CSU and Free Voters perform in the end that’s eagerly awaited. But also who comes second behind the CSU, the Greens, the Free Voters or perhaps the AfD.
The SPD had recently failed to get above 9 percent in surveys. The FDP must therefore tremble as to whether it will reach the five percent mark.
A total of 91 direct and 89 list mandates are up for grabs in the state elections in Bavaria. However, Parliament can ultimately have more than 180 members, through so-called overhang and compensatory mandates.
This year there are 1,811 candidates, 112 fewer than five years ago. The proportion of women is a good 34 percent.
After the 2018 election, the state parliament had six parliamentary groups – and a total of 205 members due to 10 overhang and 15 compensatory mandates. In addition, Bavarians can vote on the district councils in the seven administrative districts on Sunday.
While the preliminary final result of the state elections should be known late in the evening or at night, the results of the district elections will not be determined until later.
There is a lot at stake for Markus Söder: The CSU is threatened with a historically weak result in the upcoming state elections. In individual surveys, the Bavarian sister party of the CDU in Bavaria was recently well below 40 percent. In the recent state elections in 2018, the CSU under Söder achieved its weakest result in decades with 37.2 percent.
Can CSU boss Söder reverse the trend? The CSU has been governing Bavaria with the Free Voters for five years. If the result on election evening were weaker than in 2018, then Söder would be responsible for a further decline in the CSU.
The Free Voters, on the other hand, moved with their top candidate, the incumbent Bavarian Economics Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger, temporarily at the polls high. Despite the fuss about Aiwanger’s past and his behavior in the Leaflet affair Pollsters trusted the Free Voters up to four percentage points more than in the spring. Political scientists recently cited a mixture of additional awareness and solidarity effects for Aiwanger as the reasons for the Free Voters’ soaring.
Aiwanger stood for several weeks since the beginning of August because of one anti-Semitic leaflet from school days in the spotlight. His behavior in dealing with the affair was particularly criticized: Aiwanger only apologized after further allegations about his political past emerged.
At the same time, he also went on a counterattack and complained about a political campaign. After a long period of back and forth, Söder ultimately rejected Aiwanger’s dismissal as “not proportionate”. Aiwanger’s handling of the anti-Semitism allegations does not appear to have harmed him – at least in the polls before the election.