Friday June 25th 2021
Before Germany against England
What to look for in a penalty shootout
By Stephan Uersfeld
Now the great tremor begins again. Knockout phase of the European Championship. Somehow save into the penalty shootout. It always works against England. A study reveals who is the decisive man in the penalty shoot-out – and what they have to pay attention to.
The European Championship is finally getting underway. The group stage is over, 8 of 24 teams have been eliminated and the knockout phase begins. A mistake in the defense, inadequate residual defense can cost the favorites the tournament, a clever attack, a brutal long-range shot or a dust-off can wash the outsider into the next round. Sometimes nothing happens. Then there is a penalty shoot-out. A drama. Every time. Hard to bear as a spectator, not even for the players. You are under a lot of pressure. But how are penalty shoot-outs decided? Who has the better chance of winning and what should the viewer look out for? Researchers have been racking their brains over these questions for a long time.
The key question so far has always been: Is there a psychological advantage for the team that is allowed to get to the point first or is that a disadvantage? Around 75 percent of all penalties are converted – so are you broken by the great pressure of being the second team again and again having to react to a deficit? One could think so. This is what the research trio Dominik Schreyer, Sascha L. Schmidt (both from WHU, the Otto Beisheim School of Management) and Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) thought. They looked at it and went into the archives. The result is now available in the form of a study.
Only 56 percent want to shoot first
In their research, however, they came across something completely different: it doesn’t matter who gets to take the first penalty. “The coin toss still plays a decisive role,” says Dominik Schreyer from WHU in Düsseldorf. “The winner can decide how to put the opponent under pressure! It is important to make a good decision. We see: six out of ten times it actually works well.” This is the result of the trio’s study.
And let’s get to the numbers: 207 penalty shoot-outs between 2003 and 2017 were examined. Why 2003? That was when the rule changed. Before that, the winner of the coin toss had to provide the first shooter. Since then he has been able to decide. The penalty shootouts examined took place in all competitions. At world championships, European championships, in the Champions League, but also at tournaments for women’s and youth teams. Of these 207 games, it was only possible to determine who won the coin toss in 96 games. The video material did not provide any information about this for the other games. There is no documentation requirement for referees. In these 96 games, the teams that had previously won the coin toss cheered in 60 percent of the games.
Contrary to expectations, only 56 percent of all captains opted for the first penalty and 44 percent put their goalkeeper in goal first. As was the case with the 2016 European Championships, where the captains who won the coin toss passed the pressure from the first shooter on to the opposing team. Two of the three attempts were successful, the Germans also opted for this variant in the penalty shoot-out against Italy.
Use the resources wisely
But that is not always successful. The 2021 Europa League final between Manchester United and Villarreal. The Red Devils’ substitute captain, Bruno Fernandes, won the coin toss and let the Spaniards go first. After an epic penalty shoot-out with 21 successful attempts, United’s goalkeeper David De Gea was knocked out by Villarreal’s Gerónimo Rulli. The sensation was perfect and the United fans were very excited.
“They also had every reason to be upset,” says Schreyer. “But not across the board because Fernandes gave Villarreal the first penalty, but because he didn’t use the team’s resources properly. De Gea hardly saves penalties. United should have started here and tried with a goal to increase the pressure on Villarreal. That is the real result: the captains have to use their resources wisely. They have to know their team. “
England’s trauma
It was also dramatic in 1990 and 1996 at the games between Germany and England. Both times there were penalties. England is still traumatized. At the World Cup in Italy and the European Championship in England, the semi-finals are decided on penalties. England failed only through Stuart Pearce and six years later Gareth Southgate, the current coach of the Three Lions, also missed the decisive penalty. Andreas Möller takes a run, hits and puts his arms on his hips before the English corner. An iconic image.
On Tuesday there will be the classic England versus Germany at Wembley Stadium. Both nations have often and gladly dueled each other in major tournaments. It started in 1966. The legendary and controversial Geoff Hurst goal to make it 3-2 for England. It wouldn’t fall today. Goal-line technology ensures that. That might even have prevented the German World Cup victory in 2014. We remember: In 2010 Joachim Löw developed a young, exciting team. In the round of 16, she walks into the next round with a 4-1 win against England.
Shortly before the break, Frank Lampard scored a clear goal. His shot bounced off the lower edge of the crossbar behind the goal line. Referee Jorge Larrionda from Uruguay and his assistant Mauricio Espinosa see it differently. No goal, no 2-2 equalization. Germany wins and Joachim Löw’s project lives on. Until the game between Germany and England at Wembley. At least. Then the penalties come and you now know what to look out for.
.