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Investing.com – After peaking at $45,400 yesterday, the market has started to weaken towards $43,400 at the time of writing, as the $45,000 zone has visibly attracted sellers, or at least caused buyers to secure some profits.
The correction does not currently challenge the bullish profile of Bitcoin from a graphical point of view, but some believe that the price of Bitcoin is already too high at the current price.
Fair Current value of BTC of only $38K?
According to a JP Morgan report mentioned by Bloomberg, the “fair value” of the , calculated on the basis of its volatility compared to gold, would indeed be $38,000, or more than 12% below the current price.
The bank’s analysts justified their estimate of $38,000 based on the fact that bitcoin is about four times more volatile than . However, they also clarified that in a scenario where the volatility differential reduces to three times, the fair value increases to $50,000.
“The biggest challenge for bitcoin going forward is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that prevent greater institutional adoption,” the bank wrote.
Long-term goal of $150,000 for Bitcoin
Regarding the future evolution of Bitcoin, analysts at the bank confirmed a strongly bullish forecast, with a theoretical long-term objective of a capitalization equal to all gold held privately for investment purposes. , which would correspond to a value of $150,000 per Bitcoin. A year ago, the bank had a long-term goal of $146,000.
Finally, note that the bank’s analysts also judged that the correction that we observed in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in January looks less like a capitulation than that of last May.
However, JP Morgan notes that factors such as futures open interest and equity market reserves now point to an “older and therefore more worrying trend of shrinking positions” that began in November.
In other words, things could get even worse for Bitcoin in the short-medium term before they get better in the longer term.
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