Covid-19 – An incidence of more than 700 per 100,000 inhabitants, unprecedented in France?

With more than 100,000 new patients detected at Christmas, the epidemic got carried away at the end of the year, pushing the government to toughen its measures, such as the strengthening of teleworking or the mask in the city center, before the arrival of the vaccine pass. The incidence rate of December 24 is also of concern: nationwide, 759.3 new cases were recorded per 100,000 inhabitants. Data consolidated over a sliding week by Géodes, the statistical tool of Public Health France.

So, has an incidence of over 700 cases already been observed in two years? From the first to the fifth wave, each of the outbreaks of the epidemic had its specificities, with different variants. In fact, we have to go back to the second wave of fall 2020 to see the highest rates ever recorded until December.

At the beginning of November 2020, when France had just been reconfigured, the national incidence had exploded, twice crossing the bar of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, as the Géodes census. A first time on October 31, then a second on November 2 (501.5 cases), before slowly falling and stabilizing below the 200 mark from November 19. In the spring, the incidence rose gradually to approach 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, but did not again reach 500 cases.

The current situation is therefore a first since the start of the epidemic. This can be explained by several factors. This rise is primarily caused by Omicron, a new variant that is much more contagious than any of its predecessors. It is then driven by the explosion in the incidence rate in Ile-de-France, which has largely exceeded 1,000 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. On New Years Eve, it was assessed at 1,266 in the region and even 1,972 cases in Paris, according to figures consolidated by Covid Tracker over a sliding week. It appears that young people are the most affected by Omicron, the incidence rate among 20-29 year olds having reached 2732 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on December 24 in Ile-de-France.

But this record incidence must also be read with the high rate of screening encountered. These two indicators are in fact dependent on each other. Today, we are screening more than last fall. Moreover, we have never screened so much in France as in December: the record of last summer, observed around August 15, was broken with more than 6 million tests carried out in mid-December. December, according to Drees. A rush for testing, which we explain to you here. And the extent of the screening carried out before the Christmas holidays will logically contribute to the surge in the incidence. On Christmas Eve, more than a million tests were carried out in France, according to the Union syndicale des pharmaciens de dispensaries.

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