Covid-19: “The peak of the 5th wave could be reached within ten days”, assures Alain Fischer


INTERVIEW – Invited on LCI this Friday morning against Elizabeth Martichoux, the president of the Vaccine Strategy Orientation Council (COSV) Alain Fischer estimated that the peak of the 5th wave could arrive by the end of January.

Is the peak of the fifth wave coming soon? Announced in December, the long-awaited moment has not yet come to the fore, especially since contaminations are exploding due to the Omicron variant, today the majority in France. Yesterday, more than 261,421 cases were detected in France, against more than 330,000 in the last few days. Contaminations surely quantified downwards, according to Alain Fischer, the president of the Council of Orientation of the vaccine strategy (COSV).

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France affected by a fifth wave of Covid-19

“We’re getting closer”

Invited on LCI this Friday morning, the “Mr. vaccine” of the government assures however that the peak could soon arrive. “I think we’re getting close”, he reveals, based on the latest models from the Pasteur Teacher. “The institute places this peak in the beginning of the second half of January. If we do the math, it would be around ten days “, announces Alain Fischer who warns of “some hazards”. “There are a number of uncertainties, including about the virus itself”, he crashes.

For the scientist, “the decay of the wave should be of a slope equivalent to the rise”, he indicates facing Elizabeth Martichoux, this time taking for support, the models of Vittoria Colizza. However, the decrease in the number of cases will be done differently depending on the region. “There will be a geographic shift. For example, Île-de-France is much more affected by the Omicron variant than in other areas”, announces Alain Fischer. At the national level, the latter is present at nearly 80%. According to data from the COSV president, “Paris is well beyond these rates”.

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Last week, the Minister of Health and Solidarity Olivier Véran had already been optimistic by announcing that the fifth wave could be the last. It is indeed “a possibility”, suggests Alain Fischer.

With the arrival of the Omicron variant, “the virus causes less serious infections with less risk of hospitalizations or shorter hospitalizations. Perhaps we are at the beginning of a gradual attenuation of the virus?”, wonders the latter, comparing this phenomenon to “other respiratory viruses” which gradually became seasonal “colds”.

But if “this scenario is plausible, it is not certain”, warns the scientist. “No one can rule out a new variant that would be more boring “ and more dangerous for humans.

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