Covid-19: “Without the health pass, there would have been 30% hospitalizations and 4,000 additional deaths”

Has the government’s flagship measure to fight Covid-19 borne fruit? In a study published on Tuesday, the Economic Analysis Council estimated the impact of the health pass in France on public health, but also on the economy. And the results look pretty good. According to this work carried out by researchers Miquel Oliu-Barton, Bary Pradelski and Nicolas Woloszko, this precious sesame that has entered the daily life of the French has made it possible to considerably improve vaccination coverage.

Consequence: between July and December 2021, hospitalizations were fewer than in the absence of a health pass, the lives of several thousand French people were saved and six billion euros of loss for the country were avoided, estimate writers. How did they achieve these results? Can we expect the same effect for the vaccination pass? Philippe Martin, predict delegate of the Council for Economic Analysis, co-author of the study and professor of economics at Sciences Po, answers us.

Your study makes it possible to measure the impact of the health pass on vaccination coverage. How did you make this calculation?

We tried to find out what would have happened without the health pass. For this, we constructed a counterfactual, a story that did not exist. In our study, we analyzed France, Italy and Germany, three countries which introduced a health pass this summer. The key is the vaccination rate. To understand what the vaccination dynamic would have been without the health pass, we compared these countries with others, which were in similar situations this summer, but which did not introduce the pass. We therefore hypothesize that in the absence of a health pass, France would have behaved like these countries. And according to our calculations, a significant part of the increase in the vaccination rate in France is linked to the health pass, around 13 points.

What was the impact of this increase on hospitalizations and deaths?

To find out, we benefited from the advice of Pr Arnaud Fontanet on epidemiological questions. Work on the effectiveness of the vaccine, in particular on severe forms, has enabled us to estimate the number of hospitalizations that France would have experienced with a lower vaccination rate, as well as the number of deaths. According to this study, there would have been 30% more hospitalizations and 4000 additional deaths if we had not had the health pass.

From an economic point of view, the health pass has restricted access to many public places. However, you estimate that he saved the country from losing six billion euros between July and December 2021. Why?

First, there is a direct mechanism: with the health pass, the population has less fear of having social interactions. Economic activity is therefore positively impacted by the vaccination rate. Then there is an indirect mechanism: if the vaccination rate is lower, there is a greater risk of saturation of hospitals, which forces governments to impose restrictions, such as confinements, curfews or closure of some places. The health pass has avoided these administrative restrictions, which have a much higher cost on economic activity.

So the health pass has had a positive effect on public health and the economy?

Absoutely. In fact, the two are linked. It is because the introduction of the health pass has had a positive impact on health that this has allowed these good effects on the economy.

With the vaccination pass which should soon come into force, part of the population will, this time, be totally excluded from certain places. Could the consequences on the economy be different?

I do not think that this study can be used to draw conclusions, positive or negative, on the vaccine pass. Now, only a small minority of French people are not vaccinated. The question is whether this incentive to vaccinate will work for this population. Our study is not able to say.