Death, birth, marriages … How the Covid upset French demography

A first since 1945. According to the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), France has recorded more deaths than births for two successive quarters: late 2020 and early 2021. It has therefore been 77 years that the French population has not. had not experienced a negative natural balance. And the culprit would appear to be, once again, the Covid-19.

If she keeps “the strongest demographic growth in the European Union (EU)”, nuance the demographers of INED, France has seen its “demographic dynamics (…) disrupted” by the health crisis.

“The population of France has not decreased” corn “marks a very strong slowdown”, they detail in their study. This phenomenon is explained by a combination of simultaneous factors. The increase in mortality in 2020, first, with 668,900 deaths recorded, all causes combined, an increase of 9.1% compared to 2019. The life expectancy of the French has thus fallen by almost seven months for men and five months for women, returning to their 2014 level.

But this slowdown is also explained by a drop in conceptions. In fact, some 736,000 babies were born in France in 2020, the lowest level since the post-war period, in 1945. This slow decrease, which began more than 10 years ago, greatly accelerated in 2020, particularly in end of year: –6% and –8% of births were counted in November and December 2020, compared to the average for the previous three years.

The decline in births has been accompanied by a drop in the number of voluntary terminations of pregnancy (abortions). This indicator has indeed fallen by 4% in 2020, compared to 2019, “in the weeks following the first confinement”, proof that “the drop in births in November and December is above all the result of a decrease in conceptions”, note the specialists.

Result ? The natural balance (the difference between births and deaths) reached +67,000, barely more than the migratory balance, according to provisional figures. This indicator was even negative during the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. However, France remains the most fertile country in Europe in 2020, with 1.83 children per woman.

French demography has also been upset due to the 21% drop in the number of residence permits issued to non-European nationals in 2020 compared to 2019, according to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior.

Finally, the Covid-19 crisis has turned the lives of the French upside down to the point of preventing them from uniting: the number of marriages

actually collapsed by 31% in 2020. Involved? The inability of couples to project themselves into the future as well as the restrictive health restrictions have led them to postpone their marriage to a later date. The drop was particularly significant from March to July 2020, a period favored by the bride and groom, without any real catching up during the second half of the year (with the exception of October 2020 with + 28%).