A good 25 million tons of grain are blocked in the Ukrainian port city of Odessa. Stores are overflowing with wheat, barley and corn destined for the Middle East, Maghreb and Africa. Because the deliveries fail to materialize, prices explode worldwide.
The situation in the Middle East is extremely tense, says Corinne Fleischer, head of the UN World Food Program (WFP) in the Middle East. New unrest is to be expected.
SRF News: Why is the Middle East more affected by the wheat shortage than other regions due to the Ukraine war?
Corinne Fleischer: First of all because of the proximity to the Black Sea. It only takes ten days to ship wheat from Russia or Ukraine to the Middle East. From Australia or the USA, on the other hand, it takes two months. In addition, the Middle East is significantly more dependent on imports than the rest of the world. The region is therefore particularly affected by the massively increased prices.
When we ask people, ‘When was the last time you ate meat or vegetables?’ they burst into tears or say, ‘I can’t remember.’
There would actually be enough wheat on the world market to meet global demand. So why this crisis?
There is enough at the moment, yes. But it’s a matter of accessibility. The world market is going crazy and that’s why prices are going up. As a result, many people in the Middle East can no longer afford to eat. In our surveys on hunger, we see dramatic changes. When we ask people, “When was the last time you ate meat or vegetables?” they burst into tears or say, “I can’t remember.” A woman in Syria, for example, told us: “If I had known what would happen after the war, I would not have had any children.” It’s so dramatic now.
You mention it: Many people no longer have any money and have to spend a large part of their income on food.
Yes, in the countries where we operate, people spend, on average, 50 to 75 percent of their income on food. In addition, many foods in the Middle East are subsidized. These subsidies are under pressure because of the increased prices. In some cases, gas, electricity or oil subsidies have already been lifted. What remains is subsidized bread, because bread is the most important food here. But it is questionable how much longer governments can afford these subsidies.
How much time is left to avert a famine in the region?
There’s no more time. The Black Sea ports must be opened. The wheat must be able to be exported again so that the world markets calm down. And above all, it must also be possible to export fertilizer again. If that doesn’t work, famine will follow. Then next year it will no longer just be an issue of accessibility, it will become an issue of food availability.
When people run out of food, they have nothing to lose. Migration to Europe will increase again.
Rising food prices were one of the triggers for the Arab Spring protests. Should we expect new unrest?
Yes I think so. Not only in the Middle East, but also worldwide. This has already started in Sri Lanka or Indonesia; there is a similar threat in the Middle East. When people run out of food, they have nothing to lose. We are very concerned about that. Not only because of protests, but also because this will increase migration to Europe again.
Anita Bünter conducted the interview.
You can see more on the subject tonight at 7:30 p.m. in the “Tagesschau” on SRF 1.