In a short sentence, Antony Blinken set fire to the powder, although the situation was already explosive. The American Secretary of State confirmed on Sunday March 6 to the NBC television channel that the United States was seriously considering an embargo on Russian oil. “We are in active discussions with our European partners to ban imports of Russian oil into our country, while of course maintaining a steady global oil supply. »
He specifies that no decision is made, that everything is done ” in coordination “ with the Europeans, and that he discussed it with the American president, Joe Biden, and the “main members” of the American administration. This potential embargo of the third largest oil producer in the world (behind the United States and Saudi Arabia) caused a shock on the financial markets. The barrel of Brent briefly reached 139 dollars (128 euros), before falling back to around 127 dollars, which remains at its highest for fourteen years and represents an increase of 28% in five days.
All the markets then packed up on Monday, March 7. In France, the CAC 40 was down more than 3% at midday, bringing the fall to 16% over one month. The impressive rebound achieved over the past year, caused by the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, has now been entirely erased: over twelve months, the evolution of the French stock market index is very exactly −0.5%. On Monday, the German DAX and the British FTSE were also down sharply.
Second world exporter
As in every serious crisis, the dollar regains its role as a safe haven. The euro has been on a slippery slope since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and is approaching parity with the greenback, currently around $1.08, down more than 5% over one month. This is close to the low point reached during the financial panic at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Symbolically, the euro also briefly fell below parity with the Swiss franc.
Gold, another safe haven, exceeded the symbolic bar of 2,000 dollars an ounce, up 5% over five days. The precious metal is approaching its all-time high of $2,067, also reached at the start of the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, the companies most exposed to Russia are heavily sanctioned. Monday at midday, Alstom, Stellantis and Renault, which all have factories or important markets in the country of Vladimir Putin, fell between 7% and 9%. Banks are also penalized: Société Générale (−7%), BNP Paribas (−5%).
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