Ihen Russia has become democratic again, the archives freely accessible, when scientific work can be carried out on the events of June 23 and 24, 2023, historians will be able to unravel the threads of Prigojine’s mad escapade during these twenty-four hours which have amazed the world. But that day is still far away and the lessons that can be learned from the episode are only provisional. However, they deserve to be brought together, because in the war of aggression that the Kremlin has been waging for nearly eighteen months against Ukraine, Wagner’s rebellion has created some irreversibilities with serious consequences. So here are the five lessons of those twenty-four hours that amazed the world.
First of all, the warlord Evgueni Prigojine was unable to gather the necessary political support in time. Alone, Prigozhin could not overthrow power. He needed the support of a sufficiently large and powerful coalition to overturn the triptych “force structures – oligarchy – political representation” which has kept Vladimir Putin in power until now. As his “march on the third Rome” progressed, Prigozhin found himself caught in his own surprise trap, with none of Putin’s henchmen taking advantage of his wake to politically transform the military advantage he had arrogated. Having reached 200 kilometers from Moscow, he had to recognize that it was not possible to go further without risking a definitive disaster. The failure of Prigojine is therefore above all political.
However, Prigozhin and his army encountered no real resistance. On the ground, the progress of the Wagner column took place without major clashes (apart from a few skirmishes in Rostov and Voronezh), which shows the wait-and-see attitude of the population and the local authorities. A regiment of the regular army is even reputed to have pledged allegiance to Wagner during the day. This fact alone uncovers the “vertical of power”, supposed to give Vladimir Putin an ability to react immediately at any point in the territory of the Russian Federation, but which, when tested, has no effectiveness. A Potemkin vertical?
Putin placed in a weak position
Vladimir Putin was humiliated in front of his people, his subordinates, his allies and his enemies. The offense done to his person is the most insulting imaginable. For twenty-four hours, the uncertainty about his personal fate was greater than ever, recalling the failed putsch of August 1991 [un groupe de dirigeants communistes conservateurs avait tenté un coup d’Etat contre le président Gorbatchev mais échoua, précipitant l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique]. At the time, the target was Mikhail Gorbachev, the very man whom Vladimir Putin holds responsible for the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the XXe century “namely the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
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