The Kurds have played an important role in tracking down the IS leader in Syria. That’s not the only reason they deserve support. Because the jihadists remain a threat.
Only ruins remain of the makeshift IS prison in Hasaka.
The Syrian Kurds have repeatedly initiated turning points in the fight against the jihadists of the Islamic State (IS). When they defended the city of Kobane seven years ago with American support and at great cost, it was the beginning of the end of the IS caliphate. After all, it was the Kurds who wrested the last territory they still controlled from the extremists three years ago in Baghuz, south-east Syria.
Now the Kurds were again involved in two important stage victories against the jihadists. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) they led repelled the attack on Hasaka prison. And from the ranks of the SDF came the clues that ultimately led to the hiding place of IS boss Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Kuraishi. Kuraishi and at least 12 others, including children, were killed during an operation by elite American soldiers in Atme on the Syrian-Turkish border. The terrorist chief blew himself up and several members of his family in “a final act of cowardice” said President Joe Biden after the surgery.
Paranoia in the ranks of the jihadists
Kuraishi was even more cautious than his predecessor, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed not far from Atme in October 2019. He did not use the telephone or the Internet and, unlike Baghdadi, has not spoken via video or audio messages in recent years. Quite a few therefore called him a “ghost caliph”.
In order to track down the Iraqi, who came from a small village west of Mosul and who only communicated with his entourage via couriers, it took people who could establish the appropriate contacts and penetrate the area. The SDF apparently succeeded.
The IS is now looking for a successor to Kuraishi. The conflicts that already existed after Baghdadi’s death could break out again. Kuraishi, whose real name was Amir Mohammed Said Abdul-Rahman al-Mawla, was only able to assert himself at the time because he was able to refer to his alleged descent from the tribe of the Prophet, the Kuraish. In addition, the extremists will wonder if there was a traitor in their own ranks. This offers the opponents the opportunity to reinforce the already widespread paranoia among the extremists and to increase the pressure on them.
IS benefits from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq
Contrary to popular belief, IS has not gained strength of late. In both Iraq and Syria, numerous IS fighters were arrested who performed command functions at a middle level. The attacks by the extremists – like last summer on the power supply in Iraq – decreased, like a new analysis by the two security experts Michael Knights and Alex Almeida shows. It has even reached its lowest level since 2003. The extremists should have largely retreated to uninhabited desert areas.
In Syria, where ISIS had managed to expand its area of operations into the part controlled by Bashar al-Asad’s regime and pro-Iranian militias, the extremists also found themselves on the defensive after a Russian-backed counteroffensive. That shows one Analysis by Gregory Waters of the Counter Extremism Project.
Both analyzes also show that IS is benefiting from the ongoing conflicts in both Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, extremists are strongest where there are territorial disputes either between Arabs and Kurds or between Shiites and Sunnis: in the provinces of Kirkuk and Diyala. In Syria, a whole series of factors come together that offer the jihadists the necessary vacuum: the conflicts between the Kurds and the regime, between the Kurds and the Arabs, the toleration of the extremists by Islamist rebels and the attacks by Turkey and Turkey supported fighters to the SDF.
The heaviest fighting since the end of the caliphate
After their defeats in central Syria, the jihadists intensified attacks on the SDF. Experienced fighters who defected to northeast Syria may have played a role in the attack on the makeshift prison in Hasakah, Waters writes. The attack had been planned well in advance. Kuraishi wanted to repeat what the IS predecessor organization had achieved in Iraq – a revolt that is spreading to other prisons. It would not only have been a propaganda coup, but would have reinforced the ranks of the IS with experienced commanders.
In Hasaka, suicide bombers attacked the entrance, hundreds of the 3,000 to 5,000 captured extremists broke out of their cells, took control of the arms cache, shot dead dozens of guards and took prison staff and at least some of the approximately 700 underage prisoners hostage. At the same time, Sleepers crawled out of their hiding places and attacked the SDF. What followed was the heaviest fighting since ISIS was defeated in Baghuz.
The clashes lasted ten days and claimed hundreds of lives. To Information from the SDF 77 prison guards, 40 of their fighters and 4 civilians were killed, as well as 374 IS attackers and prisoners. The prisoners were transferred to another prison in north-east Syria, which had been newly built and was better secured in recent months. Hasaka has calmed down on the surface, but SDF fighters continue to comb Hasaka and other locations looking for possible sleeper cells.
IS is proving to be extremely resilient
However, those who return to business as usual after the death of Kuraishi and the crushing of the prison revolt could be in for a rude awakening. IS has proven to be extremely resilient in recent years. If you include its predecessor organizations in Iraq, the extremists have now been around for almost two decades. Although they no longer control entire regions, they have not given up their dark dream of becoming a caliphate.
Biden has announced that the Americans will continue to work closely with the SDF in the future. The Kurds and their allies urgently need support – and not only in military terms. In view of the acute shortage of money their administration is suffering from, they are in urgent need of financial and humanitarian support. Above all, a solution is needed for the more than 10,000 suspected IS prisoners and the approximately 65,000 inmates of the al-Hol camp. That prisons are hotbeds of radicalization is now a truism. It would be the least to help the Kurds on this point so that there is no second Hasakah.