The French President has tried to develop a special relationship with Moscow over the past five years. Despite moderate success, Macon still sees advantages in this: for his European idea and for his domestic positioning.
The French President in the Élysée during a meeting with the Russian President.
When has a dialogue failed? Not while it’s happening. That seems to be the conviction of the French President, who tried to defuse the conflict with Ukraine in talks with Vladimir Putin on Friday. The two heads of state are said to have been on the phone with each other for more than an hour.
There were major discrepancies, it was said afterwards from the Élysée Palace. But the Russian President has assured that no invasion is planned. He has shown the will to continue the dialogue, and is said to have told his French colleague that he, Macron, was the only one with whom he could have such in-depth discussions.
A flattery that should bring satisfaction in Paris. It was not just under Macron that France insisted on a special role in its relationship with Moscow. His two predecessors also tried to establish good relations with the head of the Kremlin. While Nicolas Sarkozy even turned into a real Putin understander after his term in office, François Hollande’s good will came to an end when Putin annexed Crimea: he annulled the sale of two warships that had already been sealed.
Emmanuel Macron sought a fresh start immediately after taking office by giving Vladimir Putin a pompous reception at the Palace of Versailles. Since then, the Frenchman has not stopped repeating that Russia is an inalienable part of Europe to be consulted on major international issues. Which the French President has since done in numerous telephone calls and several meetings.
Officially, Macron is pursuing a mixture of dialogue and harshness. One tries to establish a “strategic dialogue”, as it is called in the Élysée Palace. In fact, Macron didn’t just reach out. He always found clear words to address Moscow. For example, on the occasion of the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in August 2020, as a result of which France also supported the sanctions. Or recently in Berlin, when he attested to Russia being “on the way to becoming a destabilizing power”. Macron cited the Caucasus, the edges of Europe and “some other regions” as examples.
involvement on the eastern flank
A few months before the end of Macron’s term in office, however, the record of this “strategic dialogue” is meager, and the current escalation on Europe’s eastern edge is just one example. The dialogue with Moscow has not been able to prevent Russia from continuing its quest for power undeterred and in the process unabashedly torpedoing French interests. Nowhere is this more evident than in Africa, where Russian mercenaries are fueling anti-French sentiment and coming to the aid of regimes with which France has broken.
In Europe, Macron’s strategy has also caused great uncertainty. Together with his devastating analysis of the state of “brain-dead NATO” around two years ago and his vision of strategic autonomy in Europe (and more independence from the USA), his openness towards Putin aroused great skepticism, especially in Eastern Europe.
He has repeatedly tried to dispel doubts about his intentions, most recently with a commitment to France’s involvement in the NATO missions on Europe’s eastern flank (the so-called Enhanced Forward Presence). On the occasion of his New Year’s wishes to the French army ten days ago Macron sees NATO engagement in the Baltic States as more important than ever. And he held out the prospect of sending soldiers to Romania should NATO decide to undertake such a mission.
“Tough guys” at a meeting in Berlin 2020.
A voice for Europe
Macron could have been content with that. But he has again sought direct contact with Putin. There are two main reasons for this.
The French President sees an opportunity for Europe to develop its own point of view in this conflict and not just hide behind the USA. This supported his vision of strengthening Europe in terms of security policy and building a new security policy order. The revival of the so-called Normandy format, within the framework of which France and Germany are negotiating with the two conflicting parties, Russia and Ukraine, is also in this spirit. The fact that last week’s talks lasted eight and a half hours after two years of radio silence and will be continued in Berlin in two weeks was seen as a great success in Paris.
With his initiative last week to talk to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Macron underlines his assessment that war can still be averted with diplomacy. He left no doubt about his support for the government in Kiev. From the Élysée Palace it was even said that the country would be supplied with what it needed for its defense if it asked for it.
There is also an internal political component. The election campaign is raging in France and Macron’s actions give him tactical advantages. Several of his competitors, including Marine Le Pen, value good relations with Moscow. In addition, its competitors on the right of center in particular want France to present itself appropriately on the international stage as a large European country. Demanding a “healthy distance” from the USA is also part of the political mainstream in France. In the last few meters of his time as head of state, Macron can gain something here. The accusation that his actions are naïve is rarely heard in France.
It was Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian who publicly warned Russia recently. In an interview with the “Journal du Dimanche” he said any attack on Ukraine’s territorial integrity will have massive consequences. Le Drian also admitted at the same time that the Russian-French dialogue has so far shown no sign of the extremely volatile situation easing.