ATn the first round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron would be ahead of Valérie Pécresse, according to a study published Thursday, December 23 by a new polling institute, Cluster17. For the first time, the potential candidacy of Christiane Taubira was tested against respondents: 7% are credited to her.
Christiane Taubira, who said last Friday “consider” a candidacy for the Elysee, would arrive in front of her left competitors Yannick Jadot (5%) and Anne Hidalgo (2%), but behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12%), according to this survey published in The echoes. Created in November 2021 and made up of academics, statisticians and employees of the research and communication sector, Cluster17 has developed a methodological approach which “is based on a segmentation of French society into 16 homogeneous groups”, called “clusters », Can we read on his site.
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Behind them, Zemmour and Le Pen
In this poll, the outgoing head of state, not yet officially a candidate for re-election, is credited with 20% of the voting intentions in the first round – a score lower than the estimates made by the majority of the other institutes -, ahead of the candidate LR Valérie Pécresse (16%). Éric Zemmour (14%), Marine Le Pen (13%) on the far right, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, at the other end of the political spectrum, would be neck and neck behind the leading duo.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the ballot. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey. Survey conducted via a self-administered online questionnaire from December 19 to 22, 2021, among 1,466 people registered on the electoral rolls from a sample of 1,554 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method.
Among this sample of 1,466 people, 1,419 expressed an intention to vote. Margin of error between 1.2 and 2.7 percentage points.