RTL/ntv trend barometer
The majority of Germans hardly listen to traffic light disputes anymore
08/29/2023, 12:35 p.m
While the federal government is once again trying to resolve internal conflicts during a retreat, a survey shows that a large part of the population is no longer listening carefully to what the traffic light parties are actually arguing about. The SPD loses one point in the trend barometer.
Just in time for the half-time meeting of the federal government in Meseberg, Brandenburg, the trend barometer from RTL and ntv shows a slight loss for the chancellor’s party. Compared to the previous week, the SPD lost one percentage point and is now nine points behind the Union and four behind the AfD, which gained one point. With the exception of the SPD and the AfD, all other parties remain unchanged.
If the Bundestag were elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 26 percent (Bundestag election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 21 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 17 percent (25.7 percent), Greens 14 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 7 percent (11.5 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent). 11 percent of voters (8.7 percent) would choose other parties.
Due to the continued great frustration of many eligible voters with the policy of the traffic light coalition and the continuing weakness of the Union, the proportion of non-voters and undecided remains comparatively high at 29 percent. In 2021, the proportion of non-voters was 23.4 percent.
With one exception, there are no changes to the Chancellor’s preferences. Only Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock gains a percentage point.
If the Chancellor in Germany were not elected by the Bundestag, but by all eligible voters, then 21 percent would currently choose incumbent Olaf Scholz. 19 percent would vote for CDU leader Friedrich Merz, 15 percent for Economics Minister Robert Habeck. In a constellation in which Habeck did not run for the Greens, but Baerbock, Scholz accounted for 22 percent and Merz 21 percent. 17 percent would choose Baerbock.
Meanwhile, 63 percent of Germans (compared to 51 percent in April) consider the Chancellor to be weak in leadership. Only 32 percent (compared to 43 percent in April) do not consider Scholz to be weak in leadership. The only group in which a minority does not consider Scholz to be weak in leadership are the current supporters of the SPD. Of the SPD voters in the 2021 federal election, who would no longer vote for the SPD, 64 percent say that Scholz is weak in leadership.
The majority of voters from the Greens and FDP, the coalition partners of the SPD, also consider Scholz to be weak in leadership. 54 percent of the Greens supporters say so, and 70 percent of the FDP supporters. Union supporters are 80 percent of the opinion that Scholz is weak in leadership. It is 83 percent for AfD supporters.
Majority annoyed by arguments at traffic lights
Only a minority of Germans, 35 percent, “understands that there is a dispute between the three governing parties because of different opinions.” According to their own statements, 61 percent of Germans are “so annoyed by the ongoing disputes between the three governing parties that they no longer listen carefully to what exactly is being argued about”.
About half of the supporters of the SPD (47 percent), Greens (48 percent) and FDP (55 percent) are also annoyed by the disputes in the federal government, even more frequently the supporters of the Union (67 percent) and AfD (74 percent). and in particular the group of non-voters, of which only 12 percent express understanding for the dispute between the governing parties, while 85 percent are so frustrated by the ongoing disputes that they no longer listen carefully to what is being argued about.
Only 19 percent trust a traffic light party to be competent
When assessing the political competence of the individual parties, the Social Democrats lose two points. When asked which party is best at dealing with the problems in Germany, only 9 percent named the SPD. The Union currently accounts for 11 percent on this question, the Greens 8 percent, the FDP 2 and the AfD 7 percent. This means that only one in five eligible voters believes one of the three parties that make up the federal government to be politically competent.
60 percent, more than ever this year, do not trust any party to solve the problems in Germany.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany between August 22nd and 28th. Database: 2504 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. Opinions on the disputes in the federal government and on Olaf Scholz’s leadership strength were surveyed on August 25 and 28. Database: 1009 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 3 percentage points.
More information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.