The Kremlin speaks of negotiations, but is steadily expanding its threat. Satellite images are fueling fears of a possible major attack on Ukraine.
The Russian military base Soloti 50 kilometers east of the Ukrainian border is one of those bases that has been greatly expanded in recent weeks.
Videos of Russian troop movements have been circulating on the Internet for weeks. Often there are long railroad trains loaded with armored personnel carriers, trucks, artillery and other military equipment. However, it is often difficult to decipher where these trains are going. Now newly published satellite images provide information – and confirm fears of Western military experts.
Russia is evidently stationing extensive war material in the vicinity of Ukraine, not only on the bases known so far, but also in places that did not arouse suspicion until recently.
For example, the Russian armed forces are building a completely new field camp near the city of Kursk. A satellite image published on Friday night from December 21st shows a facility with more than 200 armored vehicles, guns and military trucks, as well as tents to accommodate the troops in the freezing winter time. There was nothing at this point in October, just an empty field.
The change can be seen in the graphic below by moving the image regulator.
It is part of a military area near the village of Otreschkowo, about 140 kilometers from Ukraine as the crow flies. It was previously used as a military training area, but previously had practically no permanent facilities.
However, it is not only the stationing itself that makes you sit up and take notice, but above all the origin of these troops. It is according to the military expert Konrad Muzyka two tactical battalion groups of the 6th Army. This association is usually stationed in the St. Petersburg region, more than a thousand kilometers to the north. Videos from the last few days on social networks suggest that the relocation from this region is still going on; the relatively small Otreschkowo camp should soon continue to grow.
One can only speculate about the reasons why the Kremlin is moving troops from the border with Finland to the vicinity of Ukraine. However, the shift fits in with similar long-range operations that could be observed in November and early December. Russia has sent parts of the 41st Army from Siberia and the 1st Guards Tank Army from the Moscow region to the crisis region. These are now in the newly created field camps near Jelnja and Pogonowo.
The units that have been permanently stationed in the south-west of Russia up to now – primarily the 8th Army and the 20th Army – have thus received considerable reinforcements. In addition, there are other operations that act like preparations for a possible attack on Ukraine. The 58th Army stationed in the North Caucasus, for example, brought some of its troops to the Ukraine, mainly to the annexed Crimean peninsula.
One of the satellite images that have now been published provides new evidence for this – and an unpleasant surprise. A previously almost empty troop base in the city of Bakhchisarai was massively expanded this late autumn. The picture taken on December 13th shows a three-digit number of armored personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers and battle tanks.
The change compared to October can also be illustrated in the graphic below by moving the slider:
This base – about 150 kilometers as the crow flies from the demarcation line to the Ukrainian mainland – had not previously been known as an element of the Russian troop deployment. The case illustrates that in the border area with Ukraine, a lot more is probably going on than the incomplete or delayed image sources show. Further such «discoveries» can be expected in the next few weeks.
The fact that the Kremlin is dismissing the creation of a potential invasion army, which according to Ukrainian estimates has grown to over 120,000 men, as foreign hysteria seems extremely cynical. The danger to Ukraine cannot be seriously denied. In a grotesque inversion of realities, however, Russia claims that it is being threatened by Ukraine and NATO.
When President Vladimir Putin again emphatically demanded security guarantees from the USA on Thursday, he turned the logical question of the present day on its head: What security guarantees does Ukraine need?
With his tactics, however, Putin has achieved a long-awaited interim goal. As the governments of the two countries have announced, the USA and Russia will hold talks at the beginning of January. The main topic will appear to be the Russian allegations against the West – not the military reality on the border with Ukraine, which is emerging tile by tile.