The mechanics of information are infernal machines, they create frustration. She beats the drum before the event and after, we do not know more. All weekend Ukraine in the spotlight. Yesterday, in the headlines, the Russians and the Americans in the ring. We have seen the ballet of official convoys, the Swiss all happy, Geneva at the center of the world, it’s back to the past. And then, end of the suspense, a good real piece of wooden tongue at the time of the press briefings. We do not understand well, we do not remember anything. The coach turned into a pumpkin.
Everyone remains in their positions
Russian Deputy Minister Sergei Riabkov reiterates that there has never been a plan to invade Ukraine. The 100,000 soldiers at the border with heavy weapons are obviously to defend themselves. US Deputy Minister Wendy Sherman wields huge sanctions in the event of an invasion. All this, already said, and several times and in all tones and always in vain.
But the Russian is satisfied, he says the Americans are taking his proposals seriously. It is roughly the finlandization of Ukraine, that NATO is fading from the horizon. The American says the opposite, that NATO will keep its open-door policy, but that reciprocal measures likely to improve strategic stability are on the table, one wonders which ones… In short, they leave each other happy, because they have decided to meet again and diplomats are like that, they hate war, they like the ambiguity that makes negotiations long.
Result: will they do it again?
This role-playing game suits them. Vladimir Putin wants to be taken seriously by Americans. To renew the tête-à-tête that he experienced in the glorious days of his childhood in the Komsomols. He put 100,000 men at the border and it works! He phoned Joe Biden twice last month.
It looks like Ukraine was made for this. The Kremlin will never put up with her being sovereign. NATO will never wage war on Ukraine.
Donbass, an endless war
This is the first unsaid. The second is that no one wants Donbass. Kiev does not have a kopeck to invest in this crumbling corner, populated by hostile Russian speakers. And the Russians only want to keep it as a means of pressure on the Ukrainians, to prevent them from hugging the American generals.
“Whatever the solution, it must go through Europe,” said Ursula Van der Leyen, President of the European Commission, on Saturday. There were two absent yesterday in Geneva. The absent are always wrong. The Ukrainian leaders out of the game, when they are the first concerned, and Europe undesirable. While it is directly involved, the conflict is at its border.
France and Germany had succeeded in 2015 in negotiating a ceasefire with Russia and Ukraine. The Normandy format gave rise to the Minsk 2 agreements. But for Europe to continue to play a role, the 25 other Europeans had to agree, they preferred to rely on the Americans.
The height is that we never stop daydreaming, chanting, calling for European strategic autonomy when there is less and less of it, that the Russians and Americans are doing without us and without us. ask permission.