Spie: results and forecasts praised


(Boursier.com) — Spie climbs 5.7% to 32.58 euros this Thursday after announcing annual production of 8,709 million euros, up +7.6% compared to 2022, including +8.4% organic growth, a exceptional level reflecting the strong dynamics of its markets, as well as its ability to increase prices in an inflationary context.
The group reported a strong increase in EBITA of 14.3% compared to 2022, to 584.2 million euros. The EBITA Margin is higher than the objective, at 6.7% of production; +40 bp compared to 2022, despite an inflationary context, and thanks to the permanent attention paid to operational excellence and further increased selectivity in a context of strong demand for its services.
The adjusted net profit is 344 ME (+14.2% compared to 2022). Net income, Group share, stands at €238.5 million (+57.4% compared to 2022)
The recommended dividend for the 2023 financial year is 0.83 euros per share, up 13.7% compared to 2022.

Very strong cash generation and financial debt leverage at a historic low

Free cash flow stands at an exceptional level of 427 million euros (+35.6% compared to 2022), with a cash conversion rate of 109%, significantly higher than the objective of 100%, supported by a structurally largely negative working capital requirement (-37 days of production at the end of December 2023), illustrating rigorous management and permanent attention to cash.
Management insists on the continued reduction of financial debt leverage to 1.2x as of December 31, 2023 (compared to 1.6x as of December 31, 2022). Successful refinancing under attractive conditions in early 2023, with no due date before 2026.

Perspectives displayed

As the Group has achieved its EBITA margin target for 2025 two years ahead of schedule, SPIE is revising its medium-term forecasts upwards for 2025:
– Organic growth: at least +4% per year on average, based on a historical level of inflation (Unchanged forecast);
– EBITA margin: continued increase in the EBITA margin towards 7% in 2025 (Previously: “Progression of the EBITA margin towards 6.7% in 2025”);
– A cash conversion rate of around 100% (Forecast unchanged);
– Acceleration of the ‘compounding model’ of acquisitions (Forecast unchanged);
– 5 ESG objectives confirmed (Forecast unchanged).

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Portzamparc believes that the figures and guidance are perfectly in line with its scenarios. Enough to stay on the purchase while aiming for a price of 36 euros.

Stifel believes that Spie published good 2023 results, “although more or less in line with the consensus”… “Cash generation stood out. The guidance for the 2024 financial year, however, offers limited visibility to the consensus at this stage… However, the revised guidance for the 2025 financial year should reassure on growth, while highlighting the potential to upgrade the margin assumption. We expect the stock price to rise today thanks to strong cash flow generation, with a reassuring message on growth and increased EBITA margin forecasts.”



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