Here is a series of studies likely to reinforce in their convictions all those who are campaigning for a decline in the legal retirement age. From 2040, the active population could decrease in France. This trend had certainly been “anticipated”, but to a lesser extent, as indicated by documents to be debated on Thursday, July 7, at a meeting of the Pensions Orientation Council (COR). Such a development deserves attention, because it could have “a negative impact on the financial situation” pension plans.
The labor force refers to people who are working and those who are unemployed (ie unemployed, looking for a job and immediately available to fill it). In 2021, there were 30.1 million. Their number would continue to increase in the years to come, but less quickly and for less time than expected, according to simulations unveiled on June 30 by INSEE. In 2040, there would be 30.5 million, i.e. 400,000 more in nearly two decades, then the decline would begin, to bring the workforce down to 29.2 million in 2070.
In its previous calculations made in 2017, INSEE came to very different results. His script says “central” – most often retained – counted on a continuous increase for half a century: 29.5 million in 2015, 31.1 million in 2040, 32.1 million in 2070. The COR, in its last annual report published in 2021, had made new projections, based in particular on low fertility assumptions. An exercise which had resulted in figures oriented downwards from 2040: 31.5 million that year, then 30.6 million in 2070.
Fewer contributors and more retirees
Ultimately, it would be less: 29.2 million in 2070, therefore, if we are to believe the data released on June 30 by INSEE. These revisions are due to several reasons. First, underlines the COR, the “number of women of reproductive age” is less important than expected, which then weighs on the “expected number of births” and, ultimately, on the workforce. Second factor to take into consideration: net migration, ie the difference between the number of people entering the territory and the number of people leaving it. This parameter would be weaker, with – in particular – fewer individuals of working age or looking for a job.
Finally, the census questionnaire has been overhauled, which “has improved population measurement”by better identifying the “situations of multiple residence, in particular children in shared residence” : these latter “could be, in some cases, wrongly counted twice”, according to the COR. In summary, there will be fewer young and active people and more seniors than expected. Which could also mean fewer contributors and more retirees.
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