It’s a bounce, light. The French economy recovered in the first quarter, with an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.4%, according to a first estimate published by the National Institute of Statistics (Insee), Friday April 30.
This rebound, after the record recession recorded in 2020 (- 8.2%) remains however ” limit “, underlines INSEE. France ended the year with a 1.4% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020, which followed a jump of 18.5% in the third quarter, fueled by a sharp upturn in activity during the summer that followed. the first confinement. France’s GDP remains 4.4% below its level in the fourth quarter of 2019.
This growth is lower than what INSEE expected, which expected a rebound of 1% of GDP, even if this forecast, published in mid-March, did not take into account the strengthening of health measures that took place at the very end of the quarter.
After the 1.4% decline recorded in the last quarter of 2020, the recovery of the economy stems in particular from the slight upturn in household consumption (+ 0.3%), but which remained strongly constrained by health restrictions (covers -fire, closure of large shopping centers, restaurants, cultural places, etc.).
Production also picked up again (+ 0.4%), in particular in construction (+ 4.2%), while investment continued to recover (+ 2.2%).
At least 5% growth in 2021
In the first quarter, total production (services, industry, construction) is thus slightly closer to its pre-crisis level, with a difference of – 4.3%.
On the other hand, foreign trade weighed on growth, with a sharp drop in exports in the first quarter.
INSEE has not yet released a forecast for the whole year, but the growth overhang, which corresponds to the growth that France could have at the end of 2021 if activity remained at the current level until the end of the year, stood at 4.1%.
The government expects growth of 5% for this year, counting on a strong rebound from the summer thanks to the vaccination campaign. It is therefore slightly less optimistic than the Banque de France (5.5%) or the OECD (5.9%).