Emmanuel Macron is undertaking a historic visit to the heart of the South Pacific from July 24 to 27. After his stay in New Caledonia, he will be the first French president to visit non-French Oceanian islands, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. He thus underlines a French paradox in the region: a relative diplomatic influence, despite territories (New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia), the largest exclusive economic zone in the region, and the presence of two sovereignty forces with more than 2,700 soldiers.
The presidential visit aims to redefine a legitimacy shaken in recent months, at the national level, by the rise of the separatists and, on the geopolitical level, by the multiplication of cooperation initiatives, under the American aegis and without France.
In New Caledonia, the president is seeking to restore confidence, after the December 2021 referendum, the legitimacy of which is disputed by the separatists. The latter refuse to join the negotiations to get out of the Matignon process and determine the future status of the island. This institutional paralysis feeds political tensions and fuels suspicions as to the will of the French authorities to continue the process of decolonization.
These criticisms, like the disputes and resentments linked to French nuclear tests in French Polynesia between 1966 and 1996, contributed to weakening France’s position in the region. Moreover, the coming to power of the separatist forces during the territorial elections of April on the fenua revives the debate on a greater autonomy of Polynesia with regard to the metropolis.
An Indo-Pacific approach at the sub-regional scale
The restoration of confidence must also go through a realignment of priorities between Paris and its territories. Indeed, Emmanuel Macron’s previous trips have highlighted a significant gap between the concerns of the authorities and those of the local populations, of an economic, social and environmental nature, and the speech of the Head of State, centered on the vulnerability of overseas territories in the face of predatory powers, including China, and their role as a relay for France’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
The French authorities must therefore strive to apply their Indo-Pacific approach at the sub-regional level, in close consultation with the local elected authorities. A recent information report from the Territorial Assembly of Polynesia, in cooperation with New Caledonia and Wallis-and-Futuna, clearly showed that the Indo-Pacific approach, hitherto defined by Paris, had generated confusion and frustration, while the territories are eager to seize this concept and appropriate it to defend their own interests.
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