He was not asked for his “opinion” on the deconfinement schedule, but the scientific council intends to let it be known how risky the President’s strategy seems to him. In a 36-page document submitted to the government on Thursday, the body which advises the executive in the management of the Covid 19 crisis is worried about a decorrelated schedule of epidemiological data. She pleads for a reopening “Careful and controlled” in order to avoid a “Possible fourth wave” from the Covid-19 epidemic this summer.
The advice – who was “Autosaisi” to write this opinion, unlike others, requested by the executive – recognizes that the reopening is “Desirable” because she “Meets high expectations and gives a perspective to the whole of society”, with psychological, social and economic benefits “Probably major”. But he is alarmed by the “Gap between the conditions of opening envisaged and the level of vaccination of the population which will be reached” May 19, when the shops and café terraces will reopen.
Warning against “A hasty exit”, scientists recommend waiting until 35 million French people – two thirds of the adult population – have received a first injection to lift the braking measures. This goal remains uncertain: as of May 9, only 17.8 million French people had received at least one dose. According to the advice, it should be vaccinated “500,000 people per day at least” to achieve it and limit the risk of epidemic resumption. Over the past seven days, just over 450,000 injections have been given on average per day, but the government anticipates a slowdown with the long Ascension and Pentecost weekends.
“Decrease faster than expected”
Scientists also fear that the prospect of deconfinement will encourage the French to lower their guard too soon. “A weariness has set in among our fellow citizens”, they note, adding that, if they have so far respected barrier gestures and physical distancing measures, they are now won over by “A deleterious feeling of no longer seeing the end of the tunnel”. “The relaxation of restrictive measures should not be considered as a signal of general relaxation”, they insist. Because, in this case, the beneficial effects of the vaccination might not be enough to avoid an epidemic rebound as suggested by the scenarios of two teams of modellers – that of Vittoria Colizza (Inserm) and Simon Cauchemez (Institut Pasteur).
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