The circulation of the covid-19 virus in schools is one of the major causes of the increase in the incidence rate and of the 5th wave. Risk calculators and simulators have unveiled the list of departments at risk.
Unlike previous waves of the covid-19 virus, children are now among the main affected by Covid-19. On December 3, the number of coronavirus cases in schools hit a record high, with more than 33,000 students testing positive, while the incidence rate among 6-10 year olds soars, with 955 cases per 100,000 residents. To fight against this spread, Jean Castex and the Minister of Health Olivier Véran announced that health standards had already been strengthened at the beginning of November, from Thursday, the protocol will now pass to level 3,
To assess the risk of an infected person being present at any event or gathering, scientists and developers have developed risk simulators or calculators. This is the case of the CovidTracker teams, with CoviRisk, and Germain Forestier, professor-researcher in computer science at the University of Haute-Alsace and senior coronavirus public data analyst. The latter focused on the case of children aged 6-10 because, as he explained to France Inter, “it is really among them that, unfortunately, the virus seems to circulate in an extremely important way“.
About fifty departments are concerned
These risk calculators were able to determine which are the departments where the probability that a child aged 6 to 10 in a class of 30 students is positive for Covid-19 is greater than 50%. (same age group and same department). Here they are :
- North
- Val d’Oise
- Ardennes
- Yvellines
- Meurthe-et-Moselle
- Moselle
- Bas-Rhin
- Haut-Rhin
- Bellefort territory
- Haute-Saone
- Doubs
- Golden Coast
- Swear
- Saone-et-Loire
- Ain
- Rhône
- Loire
- Haute-Loire
- Haute-Savoie
- Savoy
- Isere
- Drome
- Ardeche
- High mountains
- Alpes de Haute Provence
- Vaucluse
- Gard
- Alpes-Maritimes
- Var
- Bouches-du-Rhones
- Herault
- Aude
- Eastern Pyrenees
- Aveyron
- Haute-Garonne
- Hautes-Pyrenees
- Gers
- Tarn-et-Garonne
- Lot
- Corrèze
- Pyrenees-Atlantiques
- Landes
- Gironde
- Lot-et-Garonne
- Dordogne
- Vendée
- Loire Atlantique
- Maine-et-Loire
- Indre-et-Loire
- Upper Corsica
It is important to stress that these calculations are “estimates of the probability”. The researcher doesn’t just stick to the incidence rate. For the calculation of the incidence rate, only screenings and their results are taken into account. However, some people are asymptomatic and others do not get tested. Elias Orphelin also underlines that these calculators must be taken with care.