Lhe year 2023 marks the centenary of the modern Republic of Turkey, desired and modeled by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The power, which is preparing to celebrate the anniversary with great fanfare, does not hesitate to play down its legacy to credit the business party, the AKP, with the country’s great successes. At the same time, 2023 is also the year of a crucial presidential election for President Erdogan, at the head of the country for twenty years, but also for Turkey and for Europe, given the links of Turkish-European interdependence.
If the electoral campaign has not started, one is entitled to wonder if it has ever stopped. President Erdogan invades all the media, monopolizes speaking time, inaugurates a bridge one day, another a highway, appears in front of a flagship of the Turkish drone industry, and takes pride in these successes for the good being of his people and the greatness of the Turkish nation. However, this smooth image hides such an unfavorable context that the election scheduled for June could well be anticipated. Erdogan himself hinted at this in early January.
The economy is struggling: with an official – and probably underestimated – inflation rate of 85%, the purchasing power of the population continues to decline. Erdogan, who boasted about the economic performance of his successive governments which enabled him to win all the elections since 2002, sees his electoral machine seized up. But the economy does not explain everything.
While the first half of his reign was part of an open political and economic liberalism and a triumphant soft power abroad, the regime has tensed, since 2013, in an authoritarian drift which makes it particularly unpopular in the country. as well as abroad, especially in the West. Its foreign policy, long dynamic and crowned with success – there was talk of a “Turkish model” of democratization and development for the Muslim world – is, to say the least, at an impasse. The country has isolated itself, and attempts to normalize relations with Armenia, Egypt, Israel, and soon Syria are encountering persistent difficulties, with the possible exception of Ukraine, where Turkish mediation seems healthy.
The opposition needs Europe
Another major challenge, the opposition, long divided and disorganized, finally seems to be in a better order of battle. Indeed, the six parties that make up the common front against Erdogan will present only one candidate, not nominated at this time. This strategic front worries power, so much so that on December 15, 2022, Ekrem Imamoglu, mayor of Istanbul and probable opponent of Erdogan, was charged with insulting institutions. If his conviction is confirmed, he risks a two-year prison sentence, which will ban him from all political activity for five years and leave the field open to Erdogan.
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