As often in war, nothing went as planned. When, at dawn on February 24, in a televised speech, Vladimir Putin announced “a special military operation” destined to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine, and calls on Ukrainian soldiers to immediately ” Throw down the weapons “it is undoubtedly unimaginable for the master of the Kremlin to be, almost a year later, as the year 2022 draws to a close, held in check.
In theory, the strategists of the main military powers know that a war is always unpredictable; yet they seem to forget it as soon as they are the first concerned. Afghanistan was, at the end of the XXe century and at the dawn of the 21ste century, the most striking example of the unpredictability of wars, with guerrilla movements holding in check, thirty years apart, the two most powerful armies on the planet, the Soviet army and then the American army . A war rarely goes according to the plans of the attacker, or even the defender. The Ukrainian conflict came to remind this evidence not only to the strategists of Moscow, but also to all those who, throughout the world, believed that Russia would easily conquer Ukraine.
This article is taken from “World Report”2023. This special issue is on sale in kiosks or on the Internet by visiting our shop website.
kyiv wakes up on February 24 at 5 a.m. to the sound of explosions. As the first columns of Russian tanks cross border crossings and the first missiles rain down on towns and military bases across the country, few are those who give the Ukrainian authorities and their armed forces the slightest chance of survival.
Humor and swear words
In Moscow, Kremlin propagandists speak of a military victory within one to three days. Moscow calls kyiv, in the first hours of the attack, to propose a halt to the military invasion in exchange for capitulation: Ukrainian officials respond with swear words or humor, a minister saying he is ready to accept on -immediately a Russian capitulation. On the battlefield, parade uniforms are found in the first Russian tanks destroyed in ambushes, giving credence to the idea that Russian officers had to be ready to celebrate a victory very quickly.
Around President Volodymyr Zelensky – a former comedian, elected in 2019, whom Moscow had apparently convinced himself was going to flee under pressure – the resistance is organized. Faced with the head of the National Security and Defense Council, who presents him with various options to try to keep him alive and relocate the seat of power outside the capital, Mr. Zelensky becomes angry: “That’s the last I’ll hear of that!” »he replies, according to presidential advisers quoted in the excellent “Russia’s Gamble” (“Russia’s bet”, August 2022) survey of the American daily The Washington Post on the first days of war. To the American president, Joe Biden, who offers to exfiltrate him, he replies: “I need ammunition, not a taxi!” »
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